Although international migration dropped in 2017 and 2018, it accounted for nearly half of overall American population growth in 2018 as birthrates declined and death rates rose.
International migration helped rural counties record their second straight year of growth, according to local population estimates for 2018 that the Census Bureau released Thursday. And immigrants bolstered urban counties that have been losing residents to more affordable areas. Even so, the three largest metro areas in America — New York, Los Angeles and Chicago — all shrank slightly.
Without these international moves, 44% of the nation’s population would be in shrinking counties, instead of the current 27%. Dense urban counties and sparse rural areas, despite typically being on opposite sides of the political spectrum, share economic concerns related to population decline.
In rural America in particular, shrinking populations can lead to a vicious cycle, causing local businesses to fail and young people to leave in search of opportunity.
There’s a clear geographic pattern. International migration contributes to population growth more in larger metros than in smaller ones or in rural areas— and most of all in the dense urban counties of large metros. These urban counties lose population as a result of domestic migration because moves within the United States tend to be out of dense, urban counties and into suburbs or smaller metros.
Americans are leaving urban counties overall as rising home prices and inadequate construction push people to more affordable suburban counties, midsize metros and smaller metros.
In all, nine of the 51 metros of a million-plus lost people in 2018. An additional 10 large metros — including Miami, Boston and San Francisco — would have lost population if not for international migration. And, for the first time since 2007, the rate of population growth in large metros slipped below that of midsize metros.
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.