“It all depends on this dance of the pressure systems around the storm,” said Hugh Willoughby, a meteorologist at Florida International University in Miami.
If the forecast for its strength holds, Dorian would be the first hurricane of Category 4 or higher to make landfall on Florida’s east coast since 1992, when Andrew ripped through the Miami area as a Category 5 storm, causing widespread damage.
“The biggest concern will be Dorian’s slow motion when it is near Florida, placing some areas of the state at an increasing risk of a prolonged, drawn-out event of strong winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall,” the National Hurricane Center said in its 5 a.m. Friday briefing.
The Florida National Guard has activated 2,500 members, Gov. Ron DeSantis announced Thursday night. The governor had previously extended an emergency declaration to all of the state’s 67 counties.
A strike by Dorian in a densely populated region could be especially dangerous, said W. Craig Fugate, a former administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
He rattled off a list of Florida cities — Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Jacksonville — where, he said, storm surge could be deadly “once you start measuring in feet, not inches.”
“That’s not saying it won’t be devastating wherever it hits the shore,” said Fugate.
Orlando is inland in Central Florida, but if the storm dumps rain for many hours, the city’s lakes could overflow. In North Florida, the St. Johns and Matanzas Rivers have flooded Jacksonville and St. Augustine even when storms have not directly hit the cities, Fugate noted.
He also laid out other concerns.
Expensive installations around Cape Canaveral could be affected. Fuel shipments could be delayed by any disruptions at major hubs for cargo in Jacksonville or Fort Lauderdale. Powerful waves in Lake Okeechobee, Florida’s largest inland lake, could test its aging dike.
“What we’ve always encouraged in Florida is catastrophic disaster planning,” Fugate said.
This article originally appeared in
.