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The plot has thickened for Orange Democratic Movement party leader Raila Odinga, prompting him to issue a statement with some of his most loyal lieutenants rebelling and openly criticisisng his dalliance with President William Ruto.
At the center of the implosion is the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that Raila’s party signed with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
The deal rattled Odinga’s traditional support base, with some of his trusted allies who have been with him in the trenches and on the streets in the push for a better Kenya openly castigating his political maneuvers that gave birth to the broad-based government.
Siaya Governor James Orengo, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino are among politicians who have expressed their concerns with the MoU, signaling challenging times for the former Prime Minister with his own generals rebelling.
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“I cannot be a praise-singer. We fought for a democratic Constitution where people should speak freely. I urge Kenyans to tell their leaders the truth. This country will go to the dogs again if the kind of language we hear continues," Orengo remarked during the burial of Odinga’s bodyguard George Oduor on Saturday last week, echoing a position that has been taken by several ODM politicians.
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A statement released by the ODM leader on Friday called for decorum, noting that appropriate party organs will harmonise the diverse views sparked by the MoU and issue the way forward.
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Mr. Odinga believes the discussions are not unique to ODM and are in line with similar such engagements that have gone on in equally strong parties in established democracies.
It is the position of the Party Leader that at the appropriate time, relevant organs of the party will harmonise the diverse views and come up with a harmonised position on the way forward. Mr. Odinga appeals to ODM members and leaders to exercise decorum, civility, restraint and respect for each other as they debate the current state of affairs and the future of the party.
Raila’s dilemma as ODM implodes
For decades, the opposition chief has wielded influence that is the envy of most politicians, holding the government of the day accountable and fiercely defending Kenyans.
Ruto’s presidency was no exception until ODM warmed up to the government with the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding.
Although Odinga continues to criticise the government, some view his criticism as mere PR to sustain his legacy of speaking up for Kenyans and hold it that he is part of the mess.
With his men holding key positions and in light of his partnership with Ruto which was formalized by the MoU, it is impossible to be in the opposition and the government at the same time.
Not all his troops are reading from the same script, which s a difficult place to find himself in as a politician.
Governor James Orengo, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino are among Odinga’s loyal men who are yet to come fully on board, throwing jabs from time to time.
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Junet Mohamed, Opondo Kaluma and Gladys Wanga have changed from fierce critics to staunch government supporters.
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Mending the widening rift in his loyal army remains a dilemma that will define the former Prime Minister’s political future.
Ruto’s options and the slippery road ahead
With Gachagua turning his back on President William Ruto and threatening to take the mountain along with him, Ruto turned to where four Presidents before him turned to: Raila Odinga to prop his administration.
The onslaught staged by Gachagua has nonetheless left the Presidenet with the dilemma of creating a new center of power in the mountain, away from the shadows of Gachagua or replacing the vote-rich block that supported him almost to a man.
With the cooperation with Odinga, Ruto has his eyes fixed in scooping a chunk of votes from Odinga’s traditional vote basket while also wooing new ones.
In the Mount Kenya region, Wamunyoro has already emerged as an alternative center of influence with politicians trooping in to meet the former deputy president.
Another center of influence is coalescing around former President Uhuru Kenyatta who has been linked to Fred Matiang’i’s political ambition to unseat President Ruto.
Recent events in which some leaders who accompanied the president were booed by residents puts their popularity in question.
To stick with the current crop of leaders and ignore the loud noise on the ground or drop them in favour of new ones is a dilemma the president faces and each choice has consequences.
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Further complicating matters is that some of the aspirants who are popular with voters are allied to Gachagua who has vowed to make Ruto a one-term president.