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After a diplomatic blitz that saw him traverse the continent, visiting more than 29 countries to market his bid, Raila Odinga was served yet another humbling defeat in his illustrious career as a politician and a pan Africanist.
When the moment of truth came, it is Djibouti’s Foreign Affairs Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf who sailed through, clinching the seat in the seventh round after trouncing Raila in four preceding voting rounds.
Were all pledges to vote for Raila honoured?
Heading into the contest, Odinga exuded confidence of winning, with his camp claiming that more than 20 countries had endorsed his bid and all he needed was at most 13 votes to secure the two thirds majority at 33.
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If those who pledged to support his bid voted for him, then all Odinga needed was just a handful of votes to eliminate the other candidate and remain the only one on the ballot.
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A section of analysts have opined that diplomacy is complex and a pledge made verbally may not translate into an actual vote in the exercise that was conducted through secret ballot.
READ: Mixed reactions to Raila’s AUC chairperson election loss: Leaders & Kenyans weigh in
While it is not clear if all countries that pledged to support his bid actually voted for him, what is certain is that his efforts were not enough to secure victory.
The impact of SADC decision
Raila led in the first two rounds of voting before losing ground to Djibouti’s Mahmoud Ali Youssouf in the third round when Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato was eliminated.
From then on, it was a loss for Odinga, with pundits opining that majority of the countries that stood with Madagascar’s candidate shifted their support to Youssouf after the elimination of Randriamandrato, denying the former Prime Minister victory.
Kenya’s stance on a number of continental issues may have also played a part in the contest.
A united Francophone block & regional disunity
Kenya was unable to penetrate the solid francophone wall erected by Djibouti which secured the votes for its candidate.
READ: Raila embraces AUC election loss with mature message to leaders who voted for opponent
On the other hand, regional disunity caused by a number of issues may also have been a factor in the polls.
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From the position taken on Israel’s attack on Palestine to a decision to reach out to France on the conflict in DRC, Kenya has had its footprints all over and some of these actions may not have been aligned with the desire of some AU member states.