In case you haven’t noticed, the field of Democratic candidates for president next year has gotten a little crowded.
According to a candidate tracker, 16 Democrats have jumped into the race already, and three more, including Joe Biden, are likely to join.
That’s a lot of candidates to keep track of — and since California’s presidential primary is now on March 3 instead of in June, the 14 million people eligible to vote in the Democratic primary here have an even louder voice than they’ve had in years.
I checked in with Karen Skelton, a Democratic consultant based in Sacramento, to see how she thought things were shaking out so far.
“I’m actually mesmerized by the possibilities in front of us,” she said, “because it’s such a big state and we haven’t gone early for so long.”
That means, she said, more of the candidates will have to be visible in a geographically vast state — not as simple as taking a quick swing through Iowa or New Hampshire. It’s less likely that the field will have narrowed to two or three candidates by the time California’s primary rolls around.
And in order to be seen, Skelton said, the candidates will have to spend.
“Huge amounts of money,” she said. “Like $10 million here can buy you four states of media elsewhere.”
And candidates who don’t have as much experience campaigning in deep blue but deeply diverse California will need to micro-target groups of Democratic voters.
“You’re not just going, ‘I’m on the left,’” she said of the candidates. “You’re like, ‘I’m going for the Asian Pacific Islander vote. I’m going for the rural Latino vote. I’m going for the coastal vote north of Riverside County, south of Santa Monica.’”
Of course, Skelton said, Sen. Kamala Harris “has an enormous advantage.”
Harris and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont have both previously campaigned throughout California, so they have edges in the Golden State, she said.
Still, nothing’s a sure bet when the field’s this wide open.
As The New York Times’ Lisa Lerer wrote, we’re currently in the throes of a “Buttigieg Boomlet,” referring to Pete Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana. And Skelton said that for Beto O’Rourke, focusing his efforts on his giant, fast-growing home state of Texas could be a smart strategy.
A recent Quinnipiac University national poll showed Harris trailing Biden, Sanders and O’Rourke.
And at home, Harris doesn’t exactly have unqualified support.
While a new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California found that 54 percent of likely Democratic voters thought Harris should run for president, her approval rating as a senator was 48 percent among all likely voters, which was the same as the number for Sen. Dianne Feinstein.
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.