Jeffery C. Mays and William Neuman

“Don’t do it!” they shouted. Shielded by his security detail, de Blasio ignored the men and stepped into a waiting black minivan that raced away.

The two men are behind flyers placed around the YMCA urging de Blasio not to do something that he has been publicly mulling since January — run for president. “By entering these premises you agree not to run for President of the United States in 2020 or in any future presidential race,” one flyer read.

De Blasio has held multiple fundraisers for his political action committee, traveled to four early presidential primary states and conducted polling in Iowa. He said he would decide this month, after consulting with his family, whether or not to join more than 20 other candidates in seeking the Democratic nomination for president.

De Blasio has said his work in New York City, from universal prekindergarten to paid sick leave and an increase in the minimum wage, can serve as a model for the nation.

“I have never run for anything without intending to win,” he said at an unrelated news conference last week. “And you can look at my track record. I was an underdog in everything I’ve ever been near. I’m not saying that with any hubris.”

Whether the mayor can make his case to a national audience is uncertain; polls in early primary states suggest that the task may be monumentally difficult. What seems clearer is where New Yorkers stand on his chances.

An April poll from Quinnipiac University found that 76% of New York City voters believed that de Blasio should not run for president; 47% of voters said it would be bad for New York City should he decide to run.

“Nah, he should run the city,” said John Mays, 78, a retired warehouse worker who was out near de Blasio’s favorite YMCA, shopping for a Mother’s Day gift for his wife. “He’s a good guy, though. He’s good for mayor, and that’s about it.”

Victoria Braxton, 42, a teacher, was waiting for a bus not far from de Blasio’s regular coffee shop, Colson Patisserie. De Blasio should be focusing on things such as class-size reduction and affordable housing, she said.

“It’s a distraction from running the city,” Braxton said about de Blasio’s presidential aspirations before climbing onto the B61 bus. “It’s going to be a tough election. If he doesn’t have the support in New York, what’s going to happen in other states?”

William T. Cunningham, who served as communications director for Mayor Michael Bloomberg, pointed out that New York City mayors have not had much success extrapolating their local popularity to higher office.

“In this case, the mayor’s contemplating running and everybody’s like, ‘Please don’t,’” said Cunningham, who has worked on several presidential campaigns, including for Jimmy Carter, John Anderson and Bill Bradley. “You would think the New Yorkers who don’t really like him would say, ‘Please do,’ but even they say, ‘Please don’t.’ It’s like, ‘We don’t need them thinking even worse about New York than they already do.’”

The anticipation of a de Blasio 2020 campaign is not much higher outside New York City. The mayor polled at 1% in two polls in March, two-thirds of what he would need to qualify for the first Democratic debate in June. But de Blasio polls at zero percent in many polls, and his name is not listed in others.

Taylor Blair, who was until recently the president of the Iowa State University College Democrats, was among those who received a polling call from de Blasio’s potential campaign in May.

He was asked 25 specific questions seeking to find which parts of the mayor’s record might engender support. Beyond the paid poll, Blair said, he has heard little discussion of de Blasio.

“No one is out here talking like, ‘Oh, I hope Bill de Blasio runs. He’d be my guy,’” he said.

Even the advisers who helped de Blasio win City Hall are not backing a presidential run.

Mike Casca, who formerly worked on Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign and in his office, was hired to be de Blasio’s communications director. After volunteering for several months for Fairness PAC, the political action committee that the mayor is using to fund his trips, Casca left his City Hall job to work directly for the PAC last month — only to leave that job last week.

A person familiar with discussions around the PAC said Casca had originally told de Blasio that he would help get the committee off the ground, but he came to the conclusion that the mayor should not run for president and told him that he would not stay around for a possible campaign.

Emma Wolfe, de Blasio’s chief of staff, is not involved in his exploratory efforts. Neither are most of the political consultants de Blasio named as agents of the city, advisers whose advice was so valued that the mayor argued his communications with them should be shielded from public view.

Various city politicians, including three who would like to succeed de Blasio, share in New Yorkers’ skepticism.

Asked if there was a New Yorker who he thought should run for president, Corey Johnson, the speaker of the City Council who is exploring a run for mayor in 2021, said, “I love Lady Gaga.”

The city has “really big, outstanding issues that require tremendous attention,” Johnson added.

Scott M. Stringer, the city comptroller, said that de Blasio had a “right to political ambition,” but that New Yorkers deserved more than an absentee mayor.

“People know that at any given moment in New York City, something could happen,” said Stringer, who will run for mayor in 2021. “Our town is the center of the universe. You can’t be in the cornfields of Iowa. You have to be on the streets.”

And Eric L. Adams, the Brooklyn borough president who is running for mayor, called the job “a training ground for high pressure jobs. And being president is a high pressure job.” But was he endorsing de Blasio’s potential campaign?

“I am endorsing his right to run,” Adams said.

De Blasio’s monthslong will-he-or-won’t-he act is reminiscent of the musings over a possible presidential run by Mario M. Cuomo, who was New York’s governor from 1983 to 1994, for which he became known as Hamlet on the Hudson.

William O’Shaughnessy, a radio station owner and Republican who was a longtime friend of Cuomo, said the governor told him that he hesitated in part because he was not able to persuade himself that he was the best possible person to become president. De Blasio, by contrast, has suggested that if Americans got to know him, they would see how highly qualified he was for the job.

“Mario’s indecision and reluctance was genuine, was real and came out of his magnificent soul,” O’Shaughnessy said. “I’ve never seen that from de Blasio.” He added, “I’m not saying he’s not struggling.”

This article originally appeared in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/10/nyregion/de-blasio-2020-president-ny.html" id="69b49cfd-06f5-30ee-a5ea-043592315087">The New York Times</a>.

NEW YORK — On a recent midmorning, Mayor Bill de Blasio emerged from his leisurely workout routine at the Prospect Park YMCA in Brooklyn, only to be greeted by the sight of two men bounding toward him from across the street.

De Blasio for President? 'Nah'

“Yes, unfortunately,” Nomiki Konst, a candidate for public advocate, admitted. “Not anymore.”

Other Democratic candidates, like Ydanis Rodriguez, a city councilman from Upper Manhattan, Ronald Kim, an assemblyman from Queens and Danny O’Donnell, an assemblyman from Manhattan, also gave grudging nods, but blamed their partners or spouses.

Their transgression? Acknowledging that they have used Amazon.

Of the candidates on the debate stage that day, only one — Eric A. Ulrich, a Republican city councilman from Queens — was an unabashed fan of Amazon, and the only one who fully supported the company’s deal to accept as much as $3 billion in tax incentives to build a corporate campus in Long Island City, Queens.

And now that Amazon has pulled out of a deal, Ulrich may be uniquely positioned to benefit.

Nearly all of the 17 candidates in the Feb. 26 special election have opposed the deal that would have given Amazon the tax breaks, citing the company’s anti-union background, and the demands that 25,000 workers would have placed on the city’s struggling housing and transit infrastructure.

Kim even named his party line “No Amazon.”

So for voters cheering Amazon’s departure, there is no shortage of like-minded public advocate candidates to choose from. But for those unhappy with the company’s exit — and the loss of the 25,000 jobs the company had promised to create — Ulrich may be a logical choice.

“I was right and they were wrong,” Ulrich said. “The other candidates in this race were trying to outperform one another on who can be more anti-business and anti-Amazon. They chased Amazon out of town.”

A Republican running for citywide office in New York would not normally stand much of a chance, if for no other reason than simple political math. For every one registered Republican voter, there are six registered Democrats. Multiply that by a factor of Trump — the president’s election in 2016 has only strengthened the Democrats’ hold on New York — and the current odds rise even further.

But as one of two Republicans (Manny Alicandro, a lawyer, is the other) running, Ulrich may benefit from the race’s nonpartisan status: With 15 Democrats in the race, the traditional Democratic vote may be spread so diffusely that it could boost a Republican’s chances.

“I think there’s a chance that regular people who would not normally be inclined to vote in a special election are a little bit angry about what happened and are therefore more likely to vote,” Chris Coffey, a Democratic political consultant, said of the failed Amazon deal. “And if they are, there’s only one person who was not against Amazon, and that’s Eric Ulrich.”

Amazon’s new campus drew strong disapproval from the public advocate field early on.

Kim, for example, wrote an opposing op-ed with Zephyr Teachout, a law professor who has run unsuccessfully for attorney general and governor on progressive platforms, and introduced legislation that would direct corporate subsidies to instead help cancel student debt.

Melissa Mark-Viverito, a former City Council speaker, denounced the plan, suggesting that New York should focus on improving its subway system. Jumaane Williams, a councilman from Brooklyn, was irate. “You give away $3 billion? $3 billion? To the richest man in America?” Williams told The New York Times in November.

And during the recent debate, several other public advocate hopefuls doubled down on their position against Amazon. Konst said she was “actively fighting” the Amazon deal. O’Donnell said the deal was done “backwards.” Dawn Smalls called for the plan to be blocked until there was further public review. Michael A. Blake, an assemblyman who represents the Bronx, called for “dramatic changes” to the proposal.

“They were reading from the same script,” Ulrich said when asked about the question. “It’s like they were passing a piece of paper and putting their own spin on it.”

Ulrich has already distinguished himself from the Democrats in the race by taking a tougher stance on the policies of Mayor Bill de Blasio. He opposes the plan to close the Rikers Island jail complex and congestion pricing.

Coffey said Ulrich’s path to becoming public advocate must travel through Republican voters and people “who don’t like” de Blasio. “If you have a small number of people who all go to Eric Ulrich in a race like this, that could be a game-changer,” he said.

Amazon’s decision to abandon its planned campus has spawned a political nonprofit called Accountable New York that will urge voters out to vote Feb. 26 by attacking de Blasio in planned television and digital advertisements. The group, created by a Republican political operative, E. O’Brien Murray, is not allowed to explicitly support any candidate.

Although de Blasio joined with Cuomo to support the Amazon plan, the pair split on who to blame after the deal collapsed. Cuomo blamed Senate Democrats and other members of his own party who identify as progressive for opposing the plan. De Blasio mostly pointed the finger at Amazon, saying Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the collapse of the deal is an example of an “abuse of corporate power.”

“The mayor gets flak and he runs from the Amazon deal and he refuses to fight for it,” said Murray, who recently ran Keith Wofford’s unsuccessful Republican campaign for attorney general. “New York is being taken over by left-wing liberal socialists.”

But candidates such as Kim and Konst believe they may benefit from the Amazon decision because they were against the deal in any form, while several other candidates wanted to simply modify it.

“There’s a litmus test at this point,” Kim said. “It’s basically corporate politicians versus true progressives.”

Konst said the stances adopted by public advocate candidates on the Amazon plan show the importance of the job as an investigator and foil to the mayor. “At the end of the day, Amazon is a bad company and we should not be welcoming bad companies with bad histories,” she said.

Other public advocate candidates have been accused of shifting their position to become more critical of Amazon, perhaps sensing the shifting political winds among Democrats.

Mark-Viverito, Williams, Blake and Rodriguez all signed a letter in October 2017, urging Amazon to locate their campus here. They have all since said that does not mean they support the deal that the city and state agreed to, but others have seized on the seeming incongruity.

“By signing the letter, you are clearly supportive of the deal,” said Councilman Rafael Espinal of Brooklyn, who is running for public advocate and did not add his signature to the letter. “I don’t believe we should have even started the conversation” because of Amazon’s labor practices and how it hurts small businesses.

Blake opposed the Amazon deal when it was announced, calling it “very troubling” in a statement. He also called for more transparency regarding the details of the plan, such as how it would benefit the community.

After the deal’s collapse, Blake said he was disappointed. Blake said his reaction should not be interpreted as him changing his stance on Amazon. “I said the deal needs to be changed,” he said. “That does not mean scrap the deal.”

Blake suggested that his position on Amazon — sandwiched between Kim’s fervent opposition and Ulrich’s “blind acquiescence"— was the smartest and most consistent one, characterizing Amazon as a “defining issue” in the election.

“The voters will remember that either you were for Amazon and for jobs,” Ulrich said, “or you were against Amazon and against jobs.”

This article originally appeared in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/19/nyregion/amazon-public-advocate-election-eric-ulrich.html" id="f03ede11-a7e9-3731-a0e0-6a68d8103c4c">The New York Times</a>.

NEW YORK — The responses came out sheepishly, as though the debate question had delved into some illicit college-age misconduct.

Can a Republican Win a Citywide Race in N.Y.? Maybe, With Amazon's Help

At last count, nearly two dozen candidates were vying to become the next New York City public advocate in a Feb. 26 special election.

They include some well-known politicians such as Jumaane Williams, a city councilman who ran last year for lieutenant governor; Melissa Mark-Viverito, a former City Council speaker; as well as other City Council members, several state Assembly members and a bevy of lesser-known aspirants.

Why all the interest? Good question.

After all, some people, including a few current City Council members, want to abolish the office, which makes no sense to Mark J. Green, the first politician to hold the office of public advocate, which was created 25 years ago.

“Like birds flying south, a couple of times a decade someone makes an unserious proposal to abolish this elected citywide office and it goes nowhere,” Green said. “Why would we not want an advocate watching out for all the people who don’t have lawyers and lobbyists to get access to city decision makers?”

— Why do so many people want this job?

Even though the public advocate has little real power and a relatively small budget, the office still functions as a watchdog over city agencies and an ombudsman of sorts for the public. The public advocate also can introduce legislation in the City Council.

The job comes with a $184,800 salary, not to mention a driver and an office at the David N. Dinkins Manhattan Municipal Building. But for some, a different office likely beckons across the street: City Hall.

Bill de Blasio used the office as a springboard to become mayor. Green attempted the same, but fell short. And Letitia James, who succeeded de Blasio to become the first black woman elected to citywide office in New York City, was able to parlay that experience and name recognition to win the November election for state attorney general. Her victory created a vacancy, necessitating the special election.

Roughly half of the candidates are African-American, Hispanic or Asian.

“Tish James is the attorney general now because she was the public advocate,” said Eric Lane, who served as executive director and counsel to the 1989 Charter Revision Commission.

— Who’s running?

A better question might be: Who is not running?

The field will become clearer in about two weeks, after candidates submit nominating petitions, which must contain the valid signatures of at least 3,750 city voters. Some of the less well-known or less well-funded candidates may not be able to get the necessary signatures in the short time frame, potentially narrowing the field significantly. The first candidate to successfully file gets the first spot on the ballot.

But for now, there is a candidate for every taste.

You want a candidate with Albany bona fides? Choose from Assembly members Michael A. Blake of the Bronx, who is also a vice chairman of the Democratic National Committee; Daniel O’Donnell of Manhattan; Ronald Kim, of Queens; and Latrice Walker of Brooklyn.

Prefer an elected official with more local flavor? The candidates include the City Council members Rafael L. Espinal Jr. of Brooklyn, Ydanis Rodriguez of Manhattan, Eric Ulrich of Queens or Williams of Brooklyn.

How about a Republican? With so many Democrats, it is conceivable that the traditional Democratic vote could splinter in multiple directions, giving a Republican like Ulrich a chance. Other Republicans who might run include Manny Alicandro, who sought the Republican nomination for attorney general.

Alicandro did not do himself a favor when he sought to insult Ulrich on Twitter by characterizing him as a “CUNY graduate” who “isn’t ready for this job.” The comment was broadly criticized on Twitter.

The showdown even includes competition between a husband and wife: Curtis Sliwa, a radio host and founder of the Guardian Angels, and his wife, Nancy Sliwa, a lawyer who ran on the Reform Party line for attorney general.

There are self-described activists: Gwen Goodwin, Tony Herbert, Nomiki Konst and Raphael Schweizer.

There are leaders from the Reform Party (John Tabacco, Michael Zumbluskas); people with affiliations to the former President Barack Obama (Dawn Smalls, Benjamin Yee); lawyers (Peter Gleason, Ifeoma Ike and Jared Rich); former candidates (David Eisenbach, a Columbia professor who ran against James in the 2017 primary for public advocate; Walter Iwachiw, who has run for mayor as a Republican); and a host of others, including but not limited to Diane Signorile, a real estate broker; Theo Chino, a bitcoin entrepreneur; Daniel Christmann, the host of an online broadcast.

With such a crowded field, someone could win with a relatively small number of votes, increasing the chance that a long-shot candidate could eke out a victory. There is no minimum percentage of the vote needed to win.

— What does the public advocate do, anyway?

That’s a question that even some candidates seem to flub.

Betsy Gotbaum, the second person elected to the public advocate’s job, was at a candidate forum held by Citizens Union, where she serves as executive director. Gotbaum said she was floored when some candidates started speaking about eliminating student debt, while others mentioned that the office should have subpoena power. The public advocate has the power to deal with neither issue.

“I wish some of the candidates would look at the City Charter and see the duties,” said Gotbaum. “Many did not know and do not know the role.”

The City Charter describes the public advocate as responsible for receiving and investigating multiborough, citywide and individual “complaints concerning city services and other administrative actions of city agencies.” The 1989 City Charter commission recommended that the City Council president position become the “public advocate” to “monitor delivery of services to the public” and recommend legislation to fix systematic problems. The job title of Council president was officially renamed public advocate in 1993 by the City Council.

The public advocate can refer complaints to the agency in question or conduct an investigation and make recommendations about how to resolve the complaint. The public advocate also presides over City Council meetings and can introduce legislation, but does not have a vote. And, if something were to happen to the mayor, the public advocate is next in the line of succession.

— This is New York City, so a Democrat will win, right?

February’s election is nonpartisan (although most candidates are Democrats), so candidates can form their own individual party label, leading to some interesting and revealing choices.

Mark-Viverito is running on the “Fix the MTA” line. Smalls is similarly positioned, running on the “No More Delays” line, a reference to a stalled city plan for discounted MetroCards for the poor.

Kim is on the “People Over Corporations” line; Ike is on the “People Over Profit” line.

Williams is running on “The Peoples Advocate” line; Blake is running on the “For the People” line because “people don’t feel like the city is working for them and we are not fighting for them the way we should, he said. “Anything with the word public in it is not working the way it should: public housing, public transportation, public hospitals, public education. I think the public advocate is in a position to help.”

Ulrich is on the “Common Sense” line. Yee has “The Community Empowerment Party.” Espinal has the “Livable City” tag. O’ Donnell, the first openly gay man elected to serve in the state Assembly, is running on the “Equality for All” line.

And Konst is running on the “Pay People More” party line, because one of her issues is increasing the minimum wage to $30 per hour for municipal employees and businesses with more than 75 workers.

— Handicapping the finish

The race to raise money will be critical in this sprint of an election. Mark-Viverito and Williams may have an edge because of their citywide name recognition; Williams also has the backing of the Working Families Party, which should provide plenty of volunteers.

Mark-Viverito boasts $200,000 from her old City Council account, and she was the first person to turn in her petitions, which could place her at the top of the ballot if the signatures are approved.

“There are three variables in this election,” said Green, who has endorsed Williams. “Can you get enough signatures to get on the ballot? What kind of name recognition do you bring into the campaign?”

Another key factor, he added, is the “amount of money you can raise in a short time.”

Candidates must file contribution reports on Jan. 15. The Campaign Finance Board will then organize two debates, with candidates needing to meet minimum fundraising and spending requirements to qualify.

And all this for a fairly fleeting victory: The winner is only guaranteed to hold the office for a few months. Under the City Charter, party primary elections to choose candidates will be held in September and those candidates will then run in a general election in November.

The winner of that election will finish James’ term, which runs through 2021.

This article originally appeared in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/04/nyregion/public-advocate-nyc-special-election.html" id="5b3c8204-e392-3428-acaf-ed7af820bb65">The New York Times</a>.

It's New York's Hottest Contest: The Race for Public Advocate (Really)

NEW YORK — It’s a job that few people know anything about — and yet one that nearly every used-to-be, want-to-be or current local politician seems to want.

<h1>NEW YORK — The responses came out sheepishly, as though the debate question had delved into some illicit college-age misconduct.</h1>

Although de Blasio joined with Cuomo to support the Amazon plan, the pair split on who to blame after the deal collapsed. Cuomo blamed Senate Democrats and other members of his own party who identify as progressive for opposing the plan. De Blasio mostly pointed the finger at Amazon, saying Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the collapse of the deal is an example of an “abuse of corporate power."

"The mayor gets flak and he runs from the Amazon deal and he refuses to fight for it,” said Murray, who recently ran Keith Wofford’s unsuccessful Republican campaign for attorney general. “New York is being taken over by left-wing liberal socialists.”

This article originally appeared in <a id="f1dcc579-20f3-4223-acb4-61e74ddad16f" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/19/nyregion/amazon-public-advocate-election-eric-ulrich.html">The New York Times</a>.

Can a Republican win a citywide race in N.Y.? Maybe, with Amazon's help

Their transgression? Acknowledging that they have used Amazon.

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Jeffery C. Mays and William Neuman

Articles written by the author

De Blasio for President? 'Nah'

Can a Republican Win a Citywide Race in N.Y.? Maybe, With Amazon's Help

It's New York's Hottest Contest: The Race for Public Advocate (Really)

Can a Republican win a citywide race in N.Y.? Maybe, with Amazon's help