John P. Ruehl

Globetrotter Media

As winter settles over New Delhi, cold air sinks, trapping pollution in the city. Smoke from seasonal fires stemming from farming practices in India’s north further reduces the city’s air quality, which typically ranks the worst in the world.

New Delhi’s government has sought prior solutions to easing pollution, including traffic restrictions and air-filtration towers. But in 2023, it has turned to the controversial practice of cloudseeding to try and increase rainfall and improve air quality for the first time.

While the effectiveness of cloudseeding remains a debate, that hasn’t deterred more than 50 countries from investing millions annually in weather modification initiatives.

Mexico recently stepped up its cloudseeding efforts to combat drought, having begun its first program in 2020, while Indonesia has used cloudseeding to try and fill up dams and prevent flammable vegetation from drying in anticipation of this year’s fire season.

The roots of weather manipulation trace back to 1946, when U.S. scientists Vincent J. Schaefer and Irving Langmuir dispersed dry ice particles into a cloud, which caused ice crystals and visible snowfall.

Since then, the U.S. government has deployed cloudseeding programs, primarily in Western states like Montana, Wyoming, and Nevada, to try to increase rain and snowfall.

<h3>Cloudseeding technology also caught the eye of the private sphere. </h3>

Vail Ski Resort in Colorado has used Western Weather Consultants to deploy generators on mountaintops to induce snowfall since 1975, with dozens more operating in the region.

Since 1997, the West Texas Weather Modification Association has worked to increase rainfall over southwestern Texas.

The UK’s Oliver’s Travels meanwhile offers cloudseeding services to ensure clear weather for weddings in France.

The principal use of this technology has been to enhance precipitation, but other uses have been explored. From 1962 to 1983, a U.S. government initiative called Project Stormfury tried to weaken tropical cyclones with no real success, while attempts through other programs to limit the effects of storm-to-ground lightning also proved inadequate.

However, Project Cold Wand saw more successful experimentation with fog dissipation techniques in the early 1970s, while U.S. airlines have also used fog dissipation technology for decades.

A turboprop plane spreads cloudseeding chemicals over skies in Thailand. [Credit: Monthon Wa/Getty Images]

The Kremlin has also long experimented with this technology. Following the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster, the Soviet Union used cloudseeding to increase rain in the region to wash radioactive particles from the air and prevent them from reaching Moscow.

Today, Russia employs this technology to clear skies for its annual Victory Day Parade in Moscow, while hail suppression technology has also been used by Russia to protect crops and property.

Other governments have also dedicated significant resources to cloudseeding for decades. Since 1951, France’s Association to Suppress Atmospheric Plagues has grown to an extensive nationwide program, while Thailand’s Royal Rainmaking Project has been active since 1969.

In recent years, cloudseeding has grown increasingly popular in the water-stricken Middle East and parts of Africa. Morocco, Ethiopia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia all have national programs, while several more countries are considering it.

However, China has established itself as a leader in weather modification over the last two decades.

A cloud-seeding rocket launched to ease the drought in Bayannur, Inner Mongolia in July 2018 [Credit: Alamy Stock Photo]

China’s “weather army” employs almost 50,000 people, thousands of rocket launchers and cannons, and dozens of planes, largely through the China Meteorological Association Weather Modification Center.

In 2006, cloudseeding was used to clean sand off Beijing after a severe sandstorm. Two years later, cloudseeding was used to reduce pollution and pave the way for sunny weather before the 2008 Summer Olympics, practices that were repeated for the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing.

China’s cloudseeding is not just limited to its capital city, with most Chinese cities employing their own programs.

Additionally, the Yangtze River basin, currently in severe drought, saw 241 flights and 15,000 rocket launches between June and November 2022, alleged to have resulted in “8.56 billion metric tons of additional rainfall” according to Chinese government sources.

Most supporters estimate that successful cloudseeding can result in a 10 to 30 percent increase in precipitation, but doubts persist over these figures.

<h3>Concerns on weaponisation of cloudseeding technology</h3>

It also remains difficult to document increases in rainfall and accurately decide where precipitation will fall. In light of these limitations (as well as the questionable economic viability of weather modification), Israel halted its 50-year cloudseeding program in 2021.

Since the inception of cloudseeding technology, however, there has been concern over its potential for weaponisation.

In 1957, the president’s advisory committee on weather control warned that weather manipulation could develop more destructive weapons than nuclear bombs.

During the Vietnam War, the U.S. government’s cloudseeding Project Popeye spent millions of dollars between 1967 and 1972 to extend Vietnam’s monsoon season in an attempt to flood the Ho Chi Minh Trail and <a data-link-role-code="open_new_tab" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-sets-aside-millions-to-control-the-rain-2016-7">disrupt the North Vietnamese Army’s supply lines</a>.

The Soviet Union is also suspected of using cloudseeding to increase rainfall in Afghanistan during the Soviet-Afghan War to similarly turn areas into mud and disrupt the movements of the Mujahideen.

But public concern over the weaponisation of weather prompted the signing of the National Weather Modification Policy Act of 1976, and the U.S., along with other countries, signed the Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental Modification Technique (CONMED) in 1977 that requires signatories refrain from militarizing weather modification.

Nonetheless, concern remains over how current technology and practices could ignite conflicts. Iranian officials accused Israel and the UAE of “working to make Iranian clouds not rain” in 2018, while China’s expansive plans for its cloudseeding operations have also brought concern from India.

<h3>Alternate methods of weather manipulation are also underway. </h3>

In 1996, a U.S. Air Force report titled “Weather as a force multiplier: Owning the Weather in 2025” discussed how the advancement of surveillance technologies could see clouds made of smart particles deployed to generate “intelligent fog.”

There have also been projects designed to trigger lightning within clouds, which could complicate operations for the United States’ heralded F-35 plane, which cannot fly within 25 miles of a thunderstorm.

Outside militarisation initiatives, new weather modification projects are also on the horizon. Proposals to add nutrients to the ocean to encourage phytoplankton growth and increase carbon absorption, or ocean fertilisation, are increasingly discussed.

Sea and cloud brightening projects to reflect sunlight and reduce global warming are also becoming mainstream ideas, despite ongoing uncertainty about their destructive potential or ineffective results.

<h3>As weather modification technology continues to develop, we should be wary of further privatisation and militarisation. </h3>

Cloudseeding privatisation, for instance, has become increasingly globalized. Based in Fargo, North Dakota, Weather Modification, Inc. provides cloudseeding services to India. Switzerland’s Meteo Systems has been active in the UAE <a data-link-role-code="open_new_tab" href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/110118-abu-dhabi-desert-rain-cloud-seeding-controversy">for over a decade</a>.

With dozens of countries and companies now offering cloudseeding services, policymakers should design and enforce new regulations for weather modification.

While agreements and institutions like CONMED and the World Meteorological Organization Expert Team on Weather Modification play important roles, the stage is now crowded with various actors vying for a larger role in applying the technology.

Global coordination should be seen as a necessary undertaking to avoid the potentially catastrophic effects of manipulating the weather.

Before governments and companies embark on large-scale efforts to alter the weather, additional regulation in anticipation of future technologies can serve as a protective measure to avoid environmental crises and mitigate the rise of conspiracy theories.

Bottom view of plane with contrail [Credit: SevenStorm JUHASZIMRUS]

Weather manipulation is increasingly common around the world, but the dangers of privatisation and weaponisation abound.

Does modern science already allow us to manage the weather?

In August 2023, amidst global summits, Beijing released its latest standard map, causing significant controversy in the Indo-Pacific region.

This move, combined with China's aggressive border strategies, has created uncertainties across the region. China's perception of international laws as products of Western customs has allowed it to navigate these laws with flexibility, posing challenges for neighboring countries and Western powers alike.

However, the release of the 2023 map has triggered a growing backlash, leading to questions about the long-term sustainability of China's approach to its territorial disputes.

The Great Wall of China.Suphanat Wongsanuphat/Getty Images

Fewer people are visiting the Great Wall of China.Suphanat Wongsanuphat/Getty Images

<h3>Stealthy compliance with international law</h3>

China's approach to international law can be described as 'stealthy compliance.' While Beijing ambiguously accepts international law, it interprets it flexibly to advance its territorial claims.

This strategy allows China to assert its claims without enforcing them immediately, serving as a bargaining chip in bilateral negotiations.

Moreover, it diverts attention from domestic issues like Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong, channeling nationalist sentiment outward and bolstering the Chinese government's domestic legitimacy.

<h3>China's persistent territorial claims</h3>

For decades, China has unveiled its nine-dash line map to assert its claims in the South China Sea, creating ambiguity regarding these claims' scope.

A residential building of Country Garden in Fuyang City, East China's Anhui Province.Costfoto/Getty Images

While the claims pertaining to water rights, land features, or both remain a mystery, they symbolize China's aspirations to reduce U.S. control over regional shipping lanes, secure natural resources, and project power into the Pacific.

The 2023 map reintroduced a tenth dash east of Taiwan, challenging the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and extending China's reach.

It also emphasised China's rights to the disputed Senkaku Islands, drawing criticism from Japan and Taiwan.

<h3>ASEAN backlash &amp; disputed territories</h3>

The release of the 2023 map just days before the ASEAN summit sparked swift rejection from member states such as Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

China's actions in the South China Sea, including its occupation of the Paracel Islands and clashes with Vietnam and the Philippines, have fueled tensions.

The national flag of China is displayed in a street in Wuhan, Hubei province, China.Getty Images

Recent confrontations with Malaysia and the Philippines have pushed these nations to take a more confrontational stance towards China.

While the Philippines under President Bongbong Marcos has adopted a tougher approach, not all ASEAN states are willing to confront Beijing. Indonesia downplayed the map's significance and launched a China-backed high-speed rail project.

<h3>Challenges of resisting China's claims</h3>

Resisting China's territorial claims is complicated because many countries in the region have their own disputes and are wary of getting involved in further conflicts.

For example, Taiwan claims Japan's Senkaku Islands, while Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei, Indonesia, and the Philippines have their disputes.

By inflaming its own border disputes, China exacerbates existing conflicts, dissuading countries from taking a firm stance against Beijing.

<h3>Land border disputes &amp; Myanmar's role</h3>

China's land border disputes with ASEAN member Myanmar have not elicited significant opposition due to Myanmar's internal strife and economic reliance on China.

India's attempts to rally regional opposition have been complicated by Nepal, which has territorial disputes with both China and India.

In contrast, Bhutan, supported by India in its territorial disputes with China, appeared to consider concessions in 2023, potentially indicating a shift in its stance.

China's 2023 map revived a settled dispute with Russia, claiming a small island divided between the two countries in 2005.

This move may have been retaliatory in response to a Russian map from 2022 that irked China. Russia's tepid response reflects its growing dependence on China since the Ukraine invasion.

<h3>China's assertive border strategies &amp; global stability</h3>

China's aggressive border strategies have far-reaching implications for regional and global stability.

While these tactics have provided short-term benefits, they carry the risk of escalating disputes into conflicts and generating significant international backlash.

As the geopolitical landscape remains dynamic, countries, both major powers and smaller nations, are searching for effective responses to China's actions.

A view of the Great Wall of China in Beijing.Spriha Srivastava

In August 2023, amidst global summits, Beijing released its latest standard map, causing significant controversy in the Indo-Pacific region.

Why China's latest border map has heightened regional tensions

The 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar united nations globally, attracting 1.5 billion viewers for the final match.

However, despite soccer being a source of immense pride and identity, its official governing institution, the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), has headquarters in Europe, particularly Switzerland.

FIFA oversees international soccer development and promotions, ranging from rule changes to hosting rights for significant tournaments.

<h3>European dominance &amp; criticisms in global soccer</h3>

European football leagues like Premier League (EPL), Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A, and Ligue 1 play a vital role in global soccer, generating substantial revenue for FIFA.

However, this dominance has faced criticism, particularly from African teams who boycotted the World Cup in 1966 due to lack of representation.

<h3>Saudi Arabia's growing influence in global soccer</h3>

Saudi Arabia, through its vision 2030 initiative, aims to diversify its economy and bolster its global image through sports, including soccer.

Investing in major European teams and hosting international tournaments, they strive to elevate their soccer league, the Saudi Professional League (SPL), into one of the world's most high-profile leagues. They have also successfully attracted top talent from around the world.

In the U.S., Major League Soccer (MLS) has made significant strides, attracting top talent and expanding its reach.

MLS: FC Dallas at Real Salt Lake from Rio Tinto Stadium in Sandy, Utah. (Sep 4, 2021). Photo courtesy, Patrick Rouin-PR4

With investments from celebrity co-owners like David Beckham and a rapidly growing fan base, MLS is establishing itself as a major player in the soccer landscape.

<h3>Challenges to European dominance</h3>

While UEFA's dominance has been unchallenged historically, the emergence of leagues like SPL and MLS is shifting the balance.

This challenge is amplified by investments from Saudi Arabia and the U.S. in European clubs, making the soccer landscape more competitive and diverse.

The growing influence of non-European players in the global soccer scene also presents opportunities and challenges.

FIFA must navigate this shift carefully to ensure equitable distribution of resources without creating fresh imbalances.

Initiatives from Saudi Arabia and the United States continue to putpressure on Europe’s traditional stranglehold over FIFA.

Redefining global soccer: Saudi Arabia & the U.S. challenge UEFA's reign

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John P. Ruehl

Articles written by the author

Does modern science already allow us to manage the weather?

Why China's latest border map has heightened regional tensions

Redefining global soccer: Saudi Arabia & the U.S. challenge UEFA's reign