Reid J. Epstein and Lisa Lerer

Now, with just three months to go before the caucuses, the ideological debate has remained the same, but the key players have shifted.

For now, former Vice President Joe Biden is being eclipsed by Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, a Midwestern mayor less than half his age who has captured the energy of those looking for the party to move in a more centrist direction. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont has seen much of the message that boosted him to political fame in the 2016 primary contest co-opted by Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.

In polling, enthusiasm and organization, there is now a yawning gap between Warren, Sanders, Biden and Buttigieg and the other 13 Democrats still running for president. A poll taken this past week of likely caucusgoers by The New York Times and Siena College shows the top four candidates locked in a virtual tie atop the field, with the next contenders — starting with Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota — at least 13 percentage points behind.

Yet, amid a field that once numbered two dozen, it is Warren and Buttigieg who have emerged as coveted fresh faces, riding a surge of momentum. Both have been rising for months — Buttigieg from the obscurity of leading a community of 100,000 people and Warren from early campaign missteps highlighted by her ill-fated decision to release a DNA test designed to combat charges that she exaggerated her Native American ancestry.

The emergence of Warren and Buttigieg has confirmed that the race is entering a new phase, as Biden struggles to retain momentum and Sanders attempts to expand his base beyond his core supporters.

“The Sanders people are mostly the same people that were Sanders people in 2016, but there seem to be fewer of them,” said JoAnn Hardy, the Democratic Party chairwoman in Cerro Gordo County, Iowa. “Some of them have moved on to other campaigns, not necessarily all to Warren. Warren has a wider supporter base than just former Bernie supporters.”

For months Biden led polls in Iowa, but he has seen his support steadily shrink as other candidates have focused their time and attention on the state.

“Some of the early Biden support was name recognition, some was familiarity, some was affection and respect,” said Kurt Meyer, the Democratic Party chairman of Mitchell County, Iowa. “But much of it had to be renewed and extended, much as one would renew a thick book at the local library, for it to last until early February.”

That has left many of the remaining 13 candidates scrambling for attention, relevance and desperately needed campaign dollars.

Much of the debate among the quartet of top contenders this weekend centered around Warren’s long-awaited, $20.5 trillion proposal explaining how she would fund “Medicare for All,” which she released Friday.

“Let’s get real, the numbers,” said Biden, at a campaign office opening in Des Moines on Saturday morning. “The idea that she can get the costs down to $20 trillion is, I don’t know, I mean, look, even $20 trillion, where’s she get the money?”

For Warren, it was the beginning of a crucial stretch during which she would be compelled to sell her new plan to voters. Although not all of her supporters had familiarized themselves with the details Saturday morning, many seemed inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt.

“She is passionate about what she’s saying,” said Renee Lapan-Islas, 50, who came to see Warren speak in Vinton, Iowa. “We struggle for money at times because of health care.”

But Warren also faced a skeptical question from a voter with Type 1 diabetes, who expressed concern about the continuity of care under Warren’s proposed transition to Medicare for All.

“Health care is a basic human right, and we fight for basic human rights,” Warren said, adding that the approach was “about strengthening America’s middle class” and arguing that failing to dramatically overhaul the health care system would be calamitous over the long haul.

Other candidates, too, recognized the new order. Sen. Kamala Harris, of California, took aim at Warren for representing corporate clients in her private law practice. Biden declared Warren’s health care proposal to be divisive. Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado and Gov. Steve Bullock of Montana denigrated the population of South Bend as relatively insignificant.

The weekend began with the Liberty &amp; Justice Celebration, a party dinner seen as the last major candidate gathering before the caucuses. While 13 candidates spoke, only about half drew any kind of notable support and, of those, Buttigieg and Warren were the only ones to draw thunderous applause from their speeches.

The weekend marked the latest public test of each campaign’s organizational prowess. The campaigns purchase tickets for the Friday night dinner, hoping to pack the hall with their supporters.

Instead of rallying supporters for his speech, Sanders led a march that his campaign said attracted 1,500 people in the Des Moines drizzle. His aides said the campaign focused on organizing volunteers for the February caucus rather than a visible demonstration of enthusiasm inside the arena.

Biden hosted no such demonstration: Before the event began, allies of Biden quietly collected signs and noisemakers that had been placed out for supporters who never arrived.

At the end of his remarks, Biden asked the audience to “get up” and defeat President Donald Trump.

This article originally appeared in

Warren and Buttigieg Gain Momentum in Iowa Democratic Race

CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa — For months, the presidential race in Iowa was a contest between two titans of the Democratic political world, each representing distinct poles of a party struggling to define its identity in the Trump era.

Our panel:

— Karen Dunn, debate adviser to the Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama campaigns

— Aaron Kall, director of debate, University of Michigan

— Meredith Kelly, communications director for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s campaign

— Brett O’Donnell, debate coach for George W. Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney

— Geoff Potter, debate director for Gov. Jay Inslee’s campaign

— Karen Finney, senior spokeswoman for Clinton’s 2016 campaign

Joe Biden

KELLY: The former vice president had his strongest debate performance yet — his answers were tighter, and he came off as powerful and convincing. Despite expectations that he’d be mired in false equivalencies on Ukraine, he quickly and strongly dispelled with questions on his son Hunter Biden, which demonstrated how he’d handle such attacks in a debate with [President Donald] Trump. He also made a memorable case that his age and record equate to unique wisdom and an ability to get the job done on Day 1, which viewers know we need on the world stage now more than ever.

O’DONNELL: Had a solid night but not outstanding. His “clipping coupons in the stock market” line illustrates his problem. He is solid on issues but gets lost from time to time on execution. The moderators let him off the hook after he contradicted himself on his Ukraine answer and was never really pressed on this issue. His son had said earlier in the day that he used “poor judgment” in taking a role in Ukraine, but Joe Biden said he was proud of his son’s judgment. If he is the nominee, the attack from President Trump will be much more direct.

Elizabeth Warren

POTTER: Sen. Warren survived her first time out as front-runner and did very well on the first question about impeachment but will need to sharpen her performance to mitigate the risk of a serious stumble in a future debate.

FINNEY: Whether you agree with her policies or not, Warren was strong, clear and unflappable, depicting stable leadership on foreign and domestic policy. I would have liked to see her say more about “Medicare for All” and how it would work.

Bernie Sanders

DUNN: The good news: No one, including him, focused on his health. The bad news: Everyone, including him, talked about how that “damn bill” he wrote will raise middle-class taxes. He may get points on the primary debate stage for honesty, but this doesn’t make him a more viable general election candidate. But on balance a good night because it is always better to have people talk about your health plan than your actual health!

KELLY: Sen. Sanders was warmer and more dynamic than in previous debates. The Sanders campaign also deserves credit for setting up a newsmaker onstage about a big rally with a “special guest,” followed by the endorsements of Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar, and possibly Rashida Tlaib. While there’s still little Sen. Sanders can do about his own age or health, earning high-profile support from young, influential leaders in the party may be the next best thing at this critical time for him.

Pete Buttigieg

O’DONNELL: Mayor Pete had his best debate last night. He finally went on offense and was one of the few who was actually able to get the better of Elizabeth Warren in their exchange on health care. His exchange with Beto over guns may have ended Beto’s candidacy. If he performs like this in future debates and on the campaign trail, he could become an alternative for Biden supporters.

FINNEY: Mayor Buttigieg had his strongest performance, particularly strong on gun safety, Syria and foreign policy, and was clearly trying to take the mantle of the moderate that can bring the party together. The question is whether or not he gets a bounce out of tonight and can leverage that into movement in the polls.

Kamala Harris

POTTER: Sen. Harris spent most of the evening presenting a deadly serious, passionate candidate who could credibly take on the president and suggested she’s identified a message that could take her through a long primary.

Cory Booker

O’DONNELL: Sen. Booker attempted to play the role of unifier last night. However, while well spoken, he always seemed to be one or two questions behind. He inserted his rehearsed answer defending Biden from the Ukraine attack on a question about jobs and was a couple of questions behind at other points in the debate. Yes, he is likable, and playing the role of unifier is great if you’re auditioning for a role in one of the other candidate’s Cabinet, but it won’t cause voters to come his way. Cory Booker claimed he was having déjà vu all over again, but I think it was his irrelevant debate performance that was causing it.

Amy Klobuchar

DUNN: Sen. Klobuchar had a great night again. She had it all: intelligence, humor, authenticity, relatability; she knew how to play offense without appearing mean or angry. She was even the first to mention Ohio! Her consistently excellent performances, along with those of Sen. Booker and Andrew Yang, should make us all stop and wonder why the DNC set up a debate process seemingly designed to reinforce the inevitability of the top few candidates while making sure they are attacked as much as possible before the general election.

Tom Steyer

KALL: Considering it was his inaugural debate performance, Tom Steyer turned in a pretty solid overall performance last night. Steyer was referred to as the only billionaire onstage by the moderator Erin Burnett, which he playfully shrugged off. I do think he missed an opportunity here to contrast himself further with President Donald Trump, who shares a similar financial status. Since Steyer has already qualified for next month’s debate in Atlanta, he likely viewed Tuesday night as just the opening salvo in a two-part act. Judging by the negative reaction on social media during the debate, he should also consider a different tie choice for November’s debate.

Julián Castro

FINNEY: Castro had a good night overall but given the momentum the front-runners have did not see a breakthrough moment that would give him a post-debate bump.

Andrew Yang

KALL: The unexpected buzz surrounding previous Andrew Yang debate performances seems to have dissipated slightly on Tuesday night. The portion of the debate which focused on automation is a testament to the strength and prominence of Yang’s campaign to date. Yang was directly confronted on the stage at times, and his facial expressions looked quite perturbed. If his fundraising prowess allows him to continue in this race with a shrinking field of candidates, this will become more commonplace, and he must prepare accordingly.

Beto O’Rourke

POTTER: O’Rourke’s presentation was heavy on moral clarity, but he was washed out by more well-honed, aggressive candidates; these debates are just not good settings for him.

Tulsi Gabbard

FINNEY: Most noticeable on Gabbard was that while trying to invoke Hillary Clinton who moved the Democratic Party platform farther than ever before on women’s health and reproductive freedom, Gabbard used the 1992 frame on abortion: “safe, rare and legal.” Her dated language stood out from the others who spoke to the law, as about bodily autonomy, protecting Roe v. Wade and reproductive freedom.

Which Candidates Won Last Night's Democratic Debate? Six Experts Weigh In

Before Tuesday’s Democratic primary debate, The New York Times asked political debate coaches and experts to tell what each candidate needed to do to have a good night. Afterwards, it asked the experts how the candidates did.

But behind the scenes, many of the 2020 Democratic candidates have been grappling with a new reality: For the first time, a presidential primary will unfold with a sitting president seeking reelection while also facing an impeachment inquiry.

There is no political playbook for this. No pollster or strategist to speak from experience. What is clear, from interviews with advisers and allies with the various campaigns, is that the top candidates like Biden and Warren believe they are sufficiently established in the race that they can continue to command attention for their candidacies and messages. Second-tier and third-tier candidates, however, are at much greater risk of falling off the radar screen for an electorate that may soon be at a standstill, distracted by an impeachment circus in Washington.

“This is a nuclear bomb dropped in the middle of the race, and it’s going to change the dynamics for everyone,” said Jared Leopold, an aide to Gov. Jay Inslee of Washington, who dropped out of the race several weeks ago. “You can’t go on pretending it was like it was a week ago.

“It scrambles the playing field,” he added.

The political intensity surrounding impeachment was on vivid display Thursday at a private Biden fundraiser in California, where Biden said that Trump had tried to “hijack the election” by asking the president of Ukraine to help undertake a corruption investigation against the former vice president and his son, Hunter Biden.

“He’d like to get foreign help to win elections,” Biden said.

The stark new reality for the Democratic haves and have-nots is rooted in the bifurcated political landscape of the 2020 campaign. For months, it has played out on cable television, where some candidates have been able to convert appearances into polling bumps and greater fundraising. It has also played out on the campaign trail, where candidates have tried to catch fire with voters by talking about rising prescription drug bills, child care costs and student debt burdens.

For weeks ahead, if not months, cable shows will be so crowded with news and analysis of impeachment that only the top Democrats may have a guaranteed shot at getting on the airwaves. And in places like Iowa and New Hampshire, it may become harder for lower-polling candidates to get attention and break through there, too, amid the ongoing focus on Washington.

“These hearings are going to be taking place while the primary contests are unfolding,” Matt Barreto, a co-founder of polling firm Latino Decisions, said. “There’s going to be wall-to-wall coverage of impeachment; how do they find space to talk about Medicare for All, immigration reform or criminal justice reform?”

On Wednesday, as new revelations about President Donald Trump’s dealings with Ukraine unfolded on cable news, strategists, aides and allies on lower-polling campaigns cracked dark jokes about their futures, privately worrying that an expected nonstop news media focus on impeachment could be fatal for their campaigns.

More than a dozen candidates have staked their presidential bids on a breakout moment that has not yet happened, one they argue could come if Biden falters. With Biden and his son at the center of the impeachment drama, Warren ascendant and the nation’s attention focused on what happens with Trump, the path for everyone else vying for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination just got a lot harder.

The new normal may be campaign stunts like the almost-all-access bus tour Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, took reporters on this week in Iowa, dubbed the “Live Tweet Express” by Politico for the real-time chronicling reporters did of its exploits.

Making matters worse for candidates who have seen their fundraising pace slow dramatically since the end of June, the House’s turn toward impeachment comes in the last week of the quarter, just days before a Sept. 30 deadline that, for several candidates, will serve as the latest marker of their financial viability.

In the last 48 hours, there have been signs that candidates other than Biden and Warren are beginning to recalibrate their strategies to keep their campaigns relevant.

Sanders, who for decades has refused to allow current events to alter his campaign strategy, held a rare news conference Tuesday in Davenport, Iowa, hours before the formal impeachment inquiry was announced. He provided a revealing glimpse into the two sides of impeachment for the candidates, castigating Trump for committing what he believed were “impeachable offenses” while also pulling back and acknowledging that impeachment proceedings posed political risks for both sides.

“This is a complicated issue from a political point of view,” he said.

Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, who Saturday launched a fundraising drive that his campaign manager said was critical to his staying in the race, appeared Tuesday night on the same MSNBC program with Sen. Kamala Harris of California — a demotion for two candidates who typically headline their own shows.

The next morning Booker appeared on “Fox and Friends” for the first time as a presidential candidate, talking about impeachment on the president’s favorite morning news show — an apparent attempt to draw himself into Trump’s Twitter-based news cycles.

Overwhelming numbers of Democrats nationwide support impeachment, with nearly three-quarters backing the House moving forward, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday morning. Yet, the topic has not gained primary candidates much traction on the campaign trail.

In part, that is because impeachment is not a distinguishing issue; all the leading candidates support moving forward with an impeachment investigation.

“There’s an underlying stipulation that Trump should be impeached, and the Democratic candidates all agree on that point,” said Geoff Garin, a pollster working for Priorities USA, a Democratic super PAC. “So questions about that don’t help voters sort out one candidate from the other.”

Democratic officials and strategists say primary voters are more eager to hear about the issues that directly impact their lives, like health care, immigration and the economy.

“When we knock on doors the thing we hear about most is health care costs,” Ben Wikler, chairman of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, said. “There’s a sense that Washington and the Trump administration are spinning out of control but what’s agonizing about that to voters is they have actual problems in their lives.”

The only exception may be Biden, who finds his family at the center of Trump’s attacks, which continued in a Wednesday news conference carried by all the major broadcast and cable networks — though MSNBC cut away early.

Some of Biden’s advisers and allies are aware that Trump’s focus on Biden’s son Hunter and his business dealings in Ukraine carries potential risk for him. Yet they also believe that Biden is at his strongest when he is challenging Trump over American values and the direction of the nation, rather than relitigating his past, and his verbal gaffes, with his Democratic rivals.

The new impeachment focus offers the former vice president an opportunity to draw direct contrasts with Trump at a time when many Democrats are inclined to be protective of Biden, aides and allies say. They also argue that Trump’s focus on Biden suggests the president is worried about Biden’s candidacy, a message the Biden campaign has reinforced through fundraising appeals.

“It reminds him of when he was young and had a stuttering problem and dealt with bullies then,” said Rep. Cedric Richmond, D-La., a national co-chairman of Biden’s campaign. “And he’s dealing with bullies now.”

But it may be Warren who most benefits from the timing of the impeachment inquiry. It comes just as she was beginning to receive increased scrutiny from her rivals and the press over her opaque answers on health care policy. Impeachment swings the news pendulum back to one of Warren’s strengths — in April she was the first top-tier candidate to call for impeaching Trump, a move that helped infuse her then-listing campaign with momentum that has yet to slow down.

Impeachment may also serve to shield Warren from fresh attacks from her Democratic rivals seeking to take aim at someone who has overtaken Biden atop some early-state polling. With the news media focused on impeachment, attacking Warren over an issue like health care may be like shouting into a void, aides to rival candidates said.

“Impeachment is good news for Elizabeth Warren,” Jeff Link, a longtime Democratic strategist, said. “If everything gets frozen, she’s either at the top or near the top.”

The impeachment drama does not appear likely to force any dramatic recalibration of Warren’s campaign. Unlike most of her rivals, she is not starving for attention.

“It is time for impeachment now,” Warren told a crowd Wednesday night in Keene, New Hampshire. “I’m glad to see that the House has stepped up, and I hope we do this quickly.”

She then went back to her stump speech.

A New Wall for Candidates Trailing the Top Tier

WASHINGTON — Oddly, it has been business as usual on the campaign trail this week. Sen. Elizabeth Warren explained her policy plans to voters in New Hampshire on Wednesday, Sen. Bernie Sanders walked a picket line with striking autoworkers in Detroit, and former Vice President Joe Biden courted donors in Bel Air, California, and went on Jimmy Kimmel’s late-night TV show.

During a Friday night forum focused on LGBTQ issues, Biden seemed to recoil from the direct questioning from Lyz Lenz, a Cedar Rapids Gazette columnist.

In a question-and-answer session, Lenz repeatedly pressed Biden about his past votes for the Defense of Marriage Act, the military’s “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy that forbade openly gay people from serving and his statement earlier this year that Vice President Mike Pence was “a decent guy.”

Biden sought to defend himself, reminding the audience in a steamy auditorium that he supported same-sex marriage before President Barack Obama. “I didn’t have to evolve,” he said.

Then, before an audience of 700 volunteers, activists and voters, called Lenz “a lovely person,” prompting her to reply, “just asking the questions people want to know.

Offstage after their exchange, she wrote on Twitter, Biden called her “a little sweetheart.”

“I interpreted it as a little condescending,” Lenz said in a backstage interview, echoing the immediate criticism of some prominent feminists on social media.

Supporters of Biden said Lenz’s questions included a series of inaccuracies. His supporters said he didn’t back “don’t ask, don’t tell” and voted for an amendment to remove the measure from a broader bill in 1993. They also argue that she misrepresented the impact of the 1994 crime bill that he championed.

Biden had already responded to criticism of his comments about Pence earlier this year, writing on Twitter shortly after his initial remark that “there is nothing decent about being anti-LGBTQ rights, and that includes the vice president.”

The forum, hosted by advocacy group GLAAD, marked the first extended public discussion of LGBTQ issues in the 2020 Democratic primary race, which went largely unmentioned in the Democratic debates so far despite the group representing a loyal bloc within the Democratic Party.

The focus on candidates’ past departures from contemporary progressive politics stemmed in large part from the lack of daylight between most of the major candidates on issues of LGBTQ equality: Nearly all back banning conversion therapy for minors; rolling back the spread of rules that allow religious businesses to decline serving LGBTQ customers; and ending the Trump administration transgender military ban. Most have promised to pass the Equality Act, legislation opposed by the White House that would bolster the list of protected classes under civil rights law to include discrimination based on “sexual orientation” and “gender identity.”

“It’s about time we had a woke president on these issues,” said Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, “so we see everyone for the equal dignity and equal citizenship we all have.”

The candidates boasted about their accomplishments — large and small — on behalf of LGBTQ Americans.

Booker noted that as mayor of Newark he vowed not to officiate any weddings until everyone had the right to wed. Sen. Elizabeth Warren opened her appearance by reading the names of 18 trans women of color who have been killed this year.

Biden said he has been sympathetic to same-sex couples since he was a boy, when, he said, he and his father witnessed two men kissing while disembarking from the train station in Wilmington, Delaware.

“He said, ‘Joey, it’s simple,’” Biden said. “They love each other.”

In a historically diverse field, the LGBTQ community has celebrated their own record-breaking first: Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, the first openly gay man to mount a major campaign for president.

Though Buttigieg has collected significant financial support from the leaders in the gay community, some have begun to question his commitment to their causes. While Buttigieg frequently references his husband, Chasten, at campaign events and told his coming out story on the debate stage last week as an example of resiliency, he hasn’t placed LGBTQ equality at the center of his campaign.

He faced questions about a ban on gay men donating blood, pointing out that as mayor he couldn’t participate in a blood drive sponsored by his office.

“It’s an example, one of many examples, of the exclusions in this country,” he said. “We are still living with the long tail of prejudices.”

Other candidates also came with long records to tout. Biden, a reliable LGBTQ ally, frequently points to his early support of gay marriage, noting his decision to break with the Obama administration and publicly endorse the policy in 2012. Obama followed a few days later.

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii faced questions about her history of anti-gay stances, including decrying “homosexual extremists” when her home state debated whether to legalize civil unions more than a decade ago. Gabbard has apologized for her past statements and said she no longer holds those views.

“My record speaks for itself,” she said, citing her history of serving with LGBTQ people in the military and congressional record of supporting equality measures.

About 5% of voters in the four early Democratic primary states — Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina — identify as LGBTQ, according to data collected by the Human Rights Campaign, the nation’s largest LGBTQ rights organization. Another 23% prioritize LGBTQ-inclusive policies when voting, according to the group.

The event is the first of two forums hosted by LGBTQ organizations to question the candidates on their views. A second event, hosted by Human Rights Campaign in Los Angeles, will be broadcast on CNN next month.

Biden Has Tense Exchange Over LGBT Record

CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa — Former Vice President Joe Biden found himself fending off new questions about his decades-long record on lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender issues, in an testy exchange with a female moderator who described his treatment of her as “condescending.”

During a Friday night forum focused on LGBTQ issues, Biden seemed to recoil from the aggressive questioning from Lyz Lenz, a Cedar Rapids Gazette columnist.

“It’s about time we had a woke president on these issue,” said Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, “so we see everyone for the equal dignity and equal citizenship we all have.”

Booker noted that as mayor of Newark he vowed not to officiate any weddings until everyone had the right to wed.

During the presidential campaign, he faced blowback after describing Mike Pence, known for his socially conservative positions, as a “decent guy.” Biden later tweeted: “There is nothing decent about being anti-LGBTQ rights, and that includes the vice president.”

Joe Biden Has Tense Exchange Over LGBT Record

In a question-and-answer session, Lenz repeatedly pressed Biden about his past votes for the Defense of Marriage Act, the military’s “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy that forbade openly gay people from serving and his statement earlier this year that Vice President Mike Pence, known for his socially conservative positions, was “a decent guy.”

Then, before an audience of 700 volunteers, activists and voters, he called Lenz “a lovely person,” prompting her to reply, “just asking the questions people want to know.

Offstage after their exchange, she wrote on Twitter that Biden called her “a real sweetheart.”

Booker noted that as mayor of Newark he had vowed not to officiate any weddings until everyone had the right to wed. Sen. Elizabeth Warren opened her appearance by reading the names of 18 trans women of color who have been killed this year.

Although Buttigieg has collected significant financial support from leaders in the gay community, some have begun to question his commitment to their causes. While Buttigieg frequently references his husband, Chasten, at campaign events and told his coming out story on the debate stage last week as an example of resiliency, he hasn’t placed LGBTQ equality at the center of his campaign.

Biden Has Tense Exchange Over LGBTQ Record

CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa — Former Vice President Joe Biden found himself fending off new questions about his decades-long record on lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender issues, in a testy exchange with a female moderator who described his treatment of her as “condescending.”

But speaking to a khaki-clad crowd in the wooded front yard of Tom Vilsack, the former Iowa governor, Joe Biden delivered a very different message: “I am absolutely convinced that there are still things people are prepared to cooperate on.”

In the days before the candidates will gather in Detroit for their second round of presidential debates, Democrats find themselves grappling with a central question: Is beating President Donald Trump enough? Or should Democrats, much like the man they hope to defeat, shake the political system like a snow globe and worry later about how things settle?

Trump’s victory has prompted a wave of anxiety among risk-averse Democratic primary voters who fear the shock of waking up — once again — to find their antagonist-in-chief elected to the White House. At the same time, the president’s polarizing politics have energized the party’s progressive wing, prompting many of the candidates to embrace a series of proposals that some Democrats worry are out of step with the beliefs of a majority of voters.

It is a critical question of identity for a party that has been trying to bridge an ideological schism ever since the midterms ushered in an ascendant group of lawmakers eager to challenge the establishment. It also comes as congressional Democrats have squabbled within their own caucus over issues like whether to impeach the president or whether they should compromise on border control.

Interviews with more than four dozen Democratic officials, activists and voters across Iowa found a party divided between those who felt that ousting the president and returning to a pre-Trump ethos in Washington was sufficient — and not worth the risk of seeking bigger change — and those who wanted to use the current political moment to fight for a fundamental reshaping of the nation’s economic, political and health care systems.

“We’d love to be thinking about creating change and progress, but honestly, right now we all just want this beloved republic to survive Trump,” said Marjie Foster, the Democratic chairwoman in Decatur County, an area south of Des Moines on the Missouri border.

Others say Democrats are also culpable for building a political system dependent on big-money interests — and now must tear it down.

“It’s foolish to pretend that the problems in this country are the result of one aberrant presidency,” said Zach Simonson, the Democratic chairman in Wapello County in southeast Iowa. “Trump was the inevitable result of an economic system where both parties put the needs of wealthy donors ahead of working people.”

The push and pull over which path to pursue is playing out in tangible ways. In Iowa, interest groups are trying to push the Democratic candidates to the left. Greenpeace, for instance, stationed a field organizer in Des Moines who totes a hand-operated scoreboard to political events displaying the grades the group has awarded each of the 2020 candidates for their stances on the environment. In New Hampshire, volunteers with the American Civil Liberties Union appear at town hall events to press candidates to end the cash bail system and cut incarceration rates in half.

There are no organizations rallying early-state voters and candidates to the political middle.

The debate over what kind of candidate to run against Trump is a Rorschach test for how Democratic candidates, activists and voters see the future — and the past.

The party’s center-left candidates argue that Trump is a historical comma, a four- or eight-year break from the country’s political baseline. They promise a return to a bygone political era of bipartisan cooperation and respectful political debate, with far less polarization.

“Trump is very much a symptom of our problems, not the cause,” Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado said this month. “People thought, ‘We couldn’t do any worse, we might as well blow the place up.’ We need a better standard than that.”

Others, including Buttigieg, Warren and Sanders, view the president as the period at the end of an era in U.S. political life.

“The Reagan era has basically defined my entire life span, and it’s finally ending,” Buttigieg said recently. “We’re just in a different place than the kind of ’90s formula where you could assume that part of how you appeal to independent voters was to pursue ideological centrism.”

Most voters interviewed in Iowa in recent months said their attraction to candidates was based more on who could win than political kinship.

Kathy Varney, an editor for the defense contractor Collins Aerospace, wore an “Impeach Trump” shirt to a recent candidate gathering in Cedar Rapids, where she lives. Varney, 61, said she is considering Warren, Sen. Kamala Harris of California and Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, candidates who represent three disparate points on the party’s ideological spectrum.

“I just want to get everything upright again,” she said. “The No. 1 thing is just beat Trump, just get him out of there.”

The crowded presidential campaign has scrambled long-standing alliances as some Democrats who spent years as rabble rousers now find themselves allied with Biden because they see him as the safest vessel to victory. Other members of the party establishment are looking to fresher faces to build a new political coalition to win back the White House.

“Progressives I’ve talked to have shown a surprisingly pragmatic approach to 2020,” said Bill Press, the former California Democratic Party chairman in whose Washington townhouse Sanders first brainstormed about his 2016 campaign. “They are willing to bend, be flexible, hold their nose and support somebody that normally they might not give the time of day to if they feel he or she is the strongest candidate.”

At Biden’s event last week in Waukee, the Democratic establishment of Iowa quietly mingled with the former vice president and Vilsack, who served as agriculture secretary under President Barack Obama. Few were demanding fundamental change to the political system.

“I want a good middle ground,” said Heather Matson, a freshman state representative from Ankeny who ousted a five-term incumbent Republican last year. “I’m not a call-for-a-big-disruption type of person, but what I want is someone who can inspire us and bring us together.”

The quiet tension between restoration and revolution is likely to come into clearer view when the candidates gather in Detroit for the second set of debates.

On Tuesday night, Warren, Sanders and Buttigieg will stand between rival Democrats who have framed their campaigns as a return to pre-Trump normalcy. Wednesday’s face-off will place Biden between Harris and Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, the race’s two African American candidates who have both sparred with the former vice president over his record on race-related issues.

Those matchups foreshadow how the primary contest is likely to develop into this fall and winter, some Democratic officials say.

Christine Pelosi, a Democratic National Committee member from San Francisco whose mother is the House speaker, predicts that as the field narrows, the race will come down to a battle between a get-along candidate and a blow-it-up rival.

“I think we end up with one person from each philosophy,” she said. “You have to talk about both, but when you talk about big, bold structural change, that is very scary for people.”

Rep. Dave Loebsack of Iowa argued that the desire to defeat Trump will override any differences of position.

“Splits are happening more and more right now among the candidates,” Loebsack said recently, as a parade of five presidential candidates spoke at an Iowa City fundraiser for an Iowa state senator. “But I still think the bottom line is that people desperately want to get rid of Donald Trump.”

Not everyone agrees: Some argue that just focusing on Trump will not be enough to mobilize an increasingly diverse and liberal party.

To win, they argue, Democrats must energize the minority and young voters who have moved to the left on social and economic issues. Those voters, they say, want to hear more than simply a critique of a president they already believe is unfit for the White House.

“That is not the sole message and it cannot be because there are real challenges in the country that predate Trump,” said Adrianne Shropshire, the executive director of BlackPAC, an organization that works closely with African American voters.

Hoping to inspire primary voters, many of the leading candidates have embraced proposals that were once constrained to the fringes of the party. They have pitched eliminating most of the private health insurance industry, expanding the size of the Supreme Court, decriminalizing illegal border crossings and embracing reparations for slavery to some black Americans.

Their campaigns point to polls showing that majorities of Americans agree. A New York Times/SurveyMonkey poll found that two-thirds of Americans and 81% of Democrats back a 2% tax on households with a net worth of more than $50 million, as Warren proposed. The same survey found that 59% of Americans support free tuition at public colleges, and 58% support Medicare for All — both of which have long been staple policies for Sanders.

But when asked about the specifics of those plans — like eliminating private health insurance — those numbers often drop.

Moderates worry that images from the primary debates, like the photos from the June debate that show 10 Democratic candidates raising their hands in support of free health care for immigrants who are in the country illegally, will come back to haunt the candidates in the general election.

“There are some things that some of these candidates want that are not achievable and will probably cost Democrats the election,” said Danny Homan, president of AFSCME Iowa Council 61, the state’s largest employee union. “Let’s not go so far left that normal, average, everyday citizens say, ‘That’s not for me.’”

This article originally appeared in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/28/us/politics/democrats-2020-trump.html" id="2c9f454c-b881-3d5f-ac20-2d669d61261d">The New York Times</a>.

Why Democrats Are So Far From Consensus on 2020

WAUKEE, Iowa — Bernie Sanders preaches “political revolution” to the crowds at his campaign rallies. Elizabeth Warren promises “big, systemic change” as she rolls out major policy proposals. And Pete Buttigieg warns his packed town hall audiences that the “riskiest thing we could do is try too hard to play it safe.”

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