Prof. Gilbert Ouma

The Conversation Africa

In early 2024 most parts of Kenya, including Nairobi,&nbsp;<a data-link-role-code="open_new_tab" href="https://meteo.go.ke/forecast/7-days-forecast">experienced</a>&nbsp;unusually high temperatures. The World Meteorological Organisation described the hot weather as a&nbsp;<a data-link-role-code="open_new_tab" href="https://wmo.int/media/news/world-had-warmest-january-record#:%7E:text=Unprecedented%20Warmth%3A%20The%20data%20reveals,from%20the%2030%2Dyear%20average.">global phenomenon</a>: record high temperatures were recorded in 2023.

January 2024 has been recorded as the hottest month on record so far worldwide.

<a data-link-role-code="open_new_tab" href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&amp;user=xZKI6aMAAAAJ&amp;view_op=list_works&amp;sortby=pubdate">Gilbert Ouma</a>, the coordinator of the University of Nairobi’s Institute for Climate Change and Adaptation, and an associate professor at the Department of Meteorology, answers some key questions.

<h2>What is unusual about the weather in Nairobi?</h2>

The annual average temperatures for Nairobi are normally moderate, between 24°C and 25°C on the higher side and 17°C-18°C on the lower side.

These are generally very comfortable temperatures. However, in the December-January-February period, maximum temperatures are normally high, ranging between 26°C and 27°C.

This year, temperatures in February went up to between 29°C and 30°C, even hitting 31°C. This is about 6°C higher than normal Nairobi temperatures.

Nairobi National Park.ac productions/Getty Images

READ: <a data-link-role-code="open_new_tab" href="https://www.pulselive.co.ke/lifestyle/food-travel/giraffes-could-go-extinct-the-5-biggest-threats-they-face/sxt3fpw">Giraffes could go extinct – the 5 biggest threats they face</a>

That is a big difference and our bodies are bound to feel the difference. If such an increase is sustained for a long time, it can lead to a heat wave.

But in Nairobi’s case, the high temperatures have been on and off, so we can’t really talk of a heat wave. What Nairobi has had is a wave of hot weather that the human body can easily adjust to.

<h2>Why is the weather suddenly hot?</h2>

The winds that pass over Kenya from December to February every year are from the north. They blow mainly through continental areas, including some deserts. These winds flow in waves and periodically bring hot weather, the kind that has prevailed recently across east Africa.

The temperatures that are prevailing in Kenya are also&nbsp;dictated&nbsp;by the path that the winds take from the north. If the path is straight (over land mass), then we end up with these high temperatures that we have experienced in the early months of 2024.

If the winds follow a path that curves into the Indian Ocean, then the temperatures get moderated, resulting in cooler weather and rainfall in Kenya and other parts of East Africa.

Also, because of climate change, average global temperatures are rising. The temperatures last year were the highest on record. So the relatively high temperatures that we normally experience during this season (December-January-February) may be considerably higher.

Another thing to note is that the December to February season is always a dry season in Kenya, but December and January of 2024 were wet because of&nbsp;the late El Niño rains.

The El Niño phenomenon is normally experienced in this region within the September-October-November season. The temperatures which were supposed to be high in December and January were therefore moderated by those rains. So, when the rains ceased, the usual heat suddenly set in, making February feel very hot.

Kenya and its eastern African neighbours have all experienced the hot weather. The region is now moving towards the March-April-May season when the rainfall belt comes back around the equator and the sun will be overhead. The rainfall is expected to moderate the high temperatures.

<h2>What’s the effect of rising temperatures?</h2>

Aside from the hot weather at this time of year, the global climate is changing and average global temperatures are rising.

The annual temperature for Africa has been increasing at an average rate of 0.13°C per decade since 1910, but this&nbsp;has more than doubled&nbsp;to 0.28°C since 1981.

The normal minimum temperatures and the maximum temperatures are rising. This will lead to changes in extremes, such as storms.

A traffic officer in Nairobi on a rainy day

A&nbsp;storm&nbsp;is a way that the atmosphere discharges excess energy to regain equilibrium. When the energy builds in the atmosphere up to over certain levels, the excess has to go somewhere.

The excess energy build-up due to the greenhouse gas effect, which leads to climate change, requires dissipation. This is usually achieved through intense storms, leading to more frequent extreme rainfall events.

On the other hand, the other extreme of very low rainfall will also occur, and so we will get more droughts. The total amount of rains will go up in some places and down in others.

There will also be an impact on ecosystems. A number of species will not survive the changing climate. For instance,&nbsp;mosquitoes&nbsp;cannot thrive in temperatures below 17°C and above 35°C. So when the average temperatures of places go beyond this range, mosquitoes would find it difficult to survive.

However, the temperatures of some places whose temperatures were not within this range may change and get within it. For such places, malaria will become a problem when previously there was no malaria there.

The long term effect would be bad on people’s health. It could lead to&nbsp;heat stroke&nbsp;and chronic conditions such kidney disease, hypertension and cardiovascular disease. It could also cause respiratory problems such as asthma.

Silver car driving on a wet road [Image Credit: Eddy Silva Official]

Kenya has had unusually hot weather, followed by heavy rains - Prof. Gilbert Ouma unpacks what could be causing it.

What is unusual about Nairobi weather? Expert answers 3 big questions

Charles Weir

Louise Dennis

Bewilderingly rapid changes are happening in the technology and reach of computer systems. There are exciting advances in artificial intelligence, in the masses of tiny interconnected devices we call the&nbsp;"<a data-link-role-code="open_new_tab" href="https://www.zdnet.com/article/what-is-the-internet-of-things-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-iot-right-now/">Internet of Things</a>"&nbsp;and in wireless connectivity.

Unfortunately, these improvements bring potential dangers as well as benefits.

To get a safe future we need to anticipate what might happen in computing and address it early. So, what do experts think will happen, and what might we do to prevent major problems?

To answer that question, our research team from universities in Lancaster and Manchester turned to the science of looking into the future, which is called “forecasting”.

No one can predict the future, but we can put together forecasts: descriptions of what may happen based on current trends.

Indeed, long-term forecasts of trends in technology&nbsp;can prove remarkably accurate. And an excellent way to get forecasts is to combine the ideas of many different experts to find where they agree.

We&nbsp;consulted 12 expert “futurists”&nbsp;for a new research paper. These are people whose roles involve long-term forecasting of the effects of changes in computer technology by the year 2040.

Using a technique called&nbsp;a Delphi study, we combined the futurists’ forecasts into a set of risks, along with their recommendations for addressing those risks.

<h2>3 major risks associated with computer software</h2>

The experts foresaw rapid progress in artificial intelligence (AI) and connected systems, leading to a much more computer-driven world than nowadays.

Surprisingly, though, they expected little impact from two much-hyped innovations:&nbsp;Blockchain, a way to record information that makes it impossible or difficult for the system to be manipulated, they suggested, is mostly irrelevant to today’s problems; and&nbsp;Quantum computing&nbsp;is still at an early stage and may have little impact in the next 15 years.

The futurists highlighted three major risks associated with developments in computer software, as follows.

<h3>1. AI Competition leading to trouble</h3>

The experts suggested that many countries’ stance on AI as an area where they want to gain a competitive, technological edge will encourage software developers to take risks in their use of AI.

This, combined with AI’s complexity and potential to surpass human abilities, could lead to disasters.

For example, imagine that shortcuts in testing lead to an error in the control systems of cars built after 2025, which goes unnoticed amid all the complex programming of AI.

It could even be linked to a specific date, causing large numbers of cars to start behaving erratically at the same time, killing many people worldwide.

Control systems for advanced cars could be vulnerable to software errors.

<h3>2. Generative AI</h3>

Generative AI&nbsp;may make truth impossible to determine.

For years, photos and videos have been very difficult to fake, and so we expect them to be genuine.

Generative AI has already radically changed this situation. We expect its ability to produce convincing fake media to improve so it will be&nbsp;extremely difficult to tell whether some image or video is real.

Supposing someone in a position of trust – a respected leader, or a celebrity – uses social media to show genuine content, but occasionally incorporates convincing fakes.

For those following them, there is no way to determine the difference – it will be impossible to know the truth.

<h3>3. Invisible cyber attacks</h3>

Finally, the sheer complexity of the systems that will be built – networks of systems owned by different organisations, all depending on each other – has an unexpected consequence.

It will become difficult, if not impossible, to get to the root of what causes things to go wrong.

Imagine a cybercriminal hacking an app used to control devices such as ovens or fridges, causing the devices all to switch on at once. This creates a spike in electricity demand on the grid, creating major power outages.

The power company experts will find it challenging to identify even which devices caused the spike, let alone spot that all are controlled by the same app.

Cyber sabotage will become invisible, and impossible to distinguish from normal problems.

Cyber attacks could cause electricity surges on the grid, leading to outages.

<h2>Software jujitsu: Code that checks itself</h2>

The point of such forecasts is not to sow alarm, but to allow us to start addressing the problems.

Perhaps the simplest suggestion the experts suggested was a kind of software jujitsu: using software to guard and protect against itself.

We can make computer programs perform their own safety audits by creating extra code that validates the programs’ output – effectively,&nbsp;code that checks itself.

Similarly, we can insist that methods already used to ensure safe software operation continue to be applied to new technologies. And that the novelty of these systems is not used as an excuse to overlook good safety practices.

<h2>Strategic solutions exist in human-tech interactions</h2>

But the experts agreed that technical answers alone will not be enough. Instead, solutions will be found in the interactions between humans and technology.

We need to build up the skills to deal with these human technology problems, and new forms of education that cross disciplines.

And governments need to establish safety principles for their own AI procurement and legislate for AI safety across the sector, encouraging responsible development and deployment methods.

These forecasts give us a range of tools to address the possible problems of the future. Let us adopt those tools, to realise the exciting promise of our technological future.

This article was originally published by <a data-link-role-code="open_new_tab" href="https://theconversation.com/the-top-risks-from-technology-that-well-be-facing-by-the-year-2040-220979">The Conversation Africa</a>.

An AI-generated image of a futuristic city

We consulted 12 expert “futurists” for a new research paper. These are people whose roles involve long-term forecasting of the effects of changes in computer technology by the year 2040.

3 top risks from technology we will be facing by 2040 - Study

Linda Kaye

For older generations, social media might feel like a specific and often new way of interacting – markedly different from meeting in person or talking on the phone.

For most teenagers, though, it is part of an interconnected social landscape. They may not necessarily need to distinguish social connections as either online or offline.

These can be fluid across digital and physical spaces. But there are nuances to interacting on social media – and&nbsp;teens are often acutely aware&nbsp;of them.

Social media accounts are often characterised by what is known as&nbsp;context collapse. This means that there are multiple different types of audiences in a single context.

A post on Instagram or TikTok might be viewed by friends and other teenagers, but also teachers, parents, or family members.

<h2>Understanding social media audiences</h2>

When posting online, teens will be negotiating these audiences, perhaps aiming a post at their friends, but making sure the content is still appropriate for other types of audiences.

This, in some cases, might explain why teenagers (like many others) may be drawn towards more&nbsp;protected or private channels. These include Snapchat group chats, WhatsApp groups or close friends lists on Instagram.

Parents might think their teen is being secretive by using closed channels like this. However, the social connections that can occur here are likely to be the most authentic and valuable in terms of building connections with friends.

These smaller or more self-contained types of social connections may also encourage more&nbsp;active types of social media use, such as voice messages, replying to threads and video calls.

Psychological evidence&nbsp;suggests that more active types of social media behaviour are related to greater perceptions of social belonging, when compared to more passive types of social media engagement, such as simply scrolling through a feed.

These active kinds of social media use could support teens’ expression of their identity, and therefore, feelings of social support and belonging.

Social media can also present teens with opportunities for&nbsp;experimentation and discovery. For example, for those who identify as LBGTQ+, joining relevant social media groups can provide them with an opportunity to explore their own identity and gain&nbsp;social support from others.

Beyond this, curating their own social media accounts can help teenagers build their identities. In many cases, the teen may be reclaiming ownership of their identity from how it might have been built and curated by their parents.

<h2>Social cues on social media</h2>

On the other hand, the way social media makes the subtleties of friendships and peer relationships explicit can create difficulties.

Features and functions such as “remove friend” or “follow”, provide concrete markers on the boundaries of relationships or connections that don’t exist in the offline world.

“Likes” and “reactions” from others&nbsp;provide feedback&nbsp;that can affect a teen’s perception of whether they are receiving social approval or validation.

An absence of these cues, or inactivity within social interactions, such as being “<a data-link-role-code="open_new_tab" href="https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/dating-whatsapp-read-receipts-no-reply-b2422496.html">left on read</a>” or a post going unliked, might feed into perceptions of social disapproval or worse still, feelings of social rejection.

This may have particular significance for teenagers because peer relationships hold crucial importance in adolescence.

Teenagers typically value the&nbsp;opinions and approval&nbsp;of their friends and peers more than others, such as their parents or siblings.

What’s more, teenagers typically place particularly high value on&nbsp;social approval.

This means that they may be more sensitive to whether or not they have validation from their peers on social media. It might also explain why higher social media use in adolescence has been linked to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-29296-3">lower life satisfaction</a>.

In many ways, there are lessons we can learn from how teenagers use social media. In general, they appear to be much better equipped than their older counterparts to self-censor and curate the various aspects of their identities across different channels.

This suggests they are much more socially aware and attuned to the way these are interpreted by various audiences.

Teenagers’ ability to move fluidly between online and offline environments may make them better than older adults at recognising that how they behave on social media may have direct social consequences in the real world.

A teenager sitting on a desk while holding a phone [Image Credit: Cottonbro Studio]

Social connections online and offline can be fluid, but there are nuances to interacting on social media – and teens are often acutely aware of them. This article highlights how teenagers navigate nuances of social media, and what adults can learn from them.

How teenagers navigate the nuances of social media – and what adults can learn

Kobus Maree, PhD

Pivotal decisions loom large for high school graduates and those with responsibility over them. The trajectory has been a fairly straightforward line until now – learning and more learning.

Having completed high school, will the journey now lead directly to university? If so, what field of study? Will it be the technical training route? Or will it be perhaps a direct leap into a “dream” job?

Suddenly there are many options to choose from. It’s important to determine what’s advisable and what’s not.

Some may benefit from parental guidance, others may not. Some guardians may be ill-equipped to offer proper guidance. Knowing when and from whom to ask for help can make a big difference.

I am a&nbsp;<a data-link-role-code="open_new_tab" href="https://www.up.ac.za/research-matters/news/researchers/view-2999584-professor-kobus-maree">researcher and educational psychologist</a>&nbsp;with a particular interest in career counselling and helping people find their life’s purpose. I have previously worked with thousands of students who need to make subject choices, learners who need to make career choices with a view to tertiary studies and other students who are uncertain whether they are pursuing an appropriate field of study.

The focus of this article is to provide a compass for families navigating the labyrinth of decisions for their high school graduates. It becomes especially pertinent as the new year dawns and important choices loom ahead. I highlight four key guidelines.

<h2>1. Coping with disappointing grades</h2>

The final high school exam is water under the bridge. Not all will have attained their desired success, that’s for sure. But there are still ample reasons to remain optimistic about the future.

First, let’s discard the term “fail” from our vocabulary. Your current marks may limit your acceptance into your preferred field of study, but they don’t dictate your overall success in life. They don’t limit your career prospects.

It is essential to step back emotionally and to approach the experience logically. Everyone encounters both successes and setbacks and this is entirely normal.

If your results fall below expectations, view this as a manageable challenge. It’s an opportunity for personal growth and development, and for exhibiting resilience in rapidly changing and uncertain times.

In the face of disappointment, sadness, anxiety, or even depression following your exam results, dwelling on what might have been serves no purpose and offers little benefit.

Instead, consider for example the fact that your parents, guardians, or caretakers cherish you as precious and love you unconditionally. Foster open communication with them. Share your feelings with them through conversation or text, and actively listen when they express their thoughts. They are crucial pillars of your support structure.

It is crucial not to fixate on a preferred university, college or training institution.

While research indicates that individuals with degrees often find employment more easily and earn higher salaries, university is not the only path to success. Non-university study holds its own value, and each study discipline and tertiary training institution should be evaluated on its merits.

Consider specialised diplomas and certificates, such as those in information technology (for instance, cyber security), or technical qualifications (for instance, renewable energy wind turbine service).

These qualifications can be personally enriching and offer diverse career opportunities, often making students highly employable.

Don’t hesitate to seek career counselling from a qualified psychologist (career counsellor).

<h2>2. What to do if grades fall below expectations</h2>

You may have secured decent grades – but not good enough to secure admission to your preferred course of study. There are several avenues to explore.

Some examination boards entertain requests for a reevaluation of exam papers, supplementary exams, or even repeating classes or specific subjects. These options call for diligence and dedication.

I always encourage determined learners to translate their aspirations into actions. For example, you could explore the option of pursuing your favoured field of study at training levels or institutions other than university.

Consulting with a career counsellor in this regard is essential. Seek advice from individuals who have successfully navigated similar situations – and from those who were unable to do so.

Consider the inspiring story of a student aspiring to study medicine, but failing to achieve desired grades and lacking exposure to mathematics or physical sciences in high school.

After completing high school, the student enrolled in mathematics and physical sciences at a post-school training institution, subsequently pursuing a general degree at a university.

Achieving excellent results, the student gained admission to study medicine and is now a final-year medical student. This illustrates that diverse routes can lead to a successful career.

The significance of high school subject symbols diminishes over time. You are encouraged to reflect on your short-, medium- and long-term goals and understand the purpose of your studies.

It should not primarily be about pleasing family or outperforming others. Instead, focus on becoming the best version of yourself. Competition with others serves no meaningful purpose.

<h2>3. Discovering a sense of meaning and purpose</h2>

It is imperative to ensure that students cultivate a profound sense of meaning, hope and purpose in their lives. This is to say that you get a clear understanding of life’s purpose, why you are pursuing your studies, and what serves as your “north star”.

While choosing a field of study that supports financial stability is crucial, you should also consult a professional, such as a career psychologist, to uncover and enact your central life theme(s).

This helps you identify what you genuinely wish to achieve in life (for instance, helping others that have been bullied), beyond the numerical goals you aim to attain.

Furthermore, you need to be instilled with the belief that you possess the capacity to reach these goals and bring your dreams to fruition.

<h2>4. Identify your key life themes</h2>

Once you have identified your key themes, you gain the ability to articulate your career-life purpose, addressing existential questions such as “Why do I live?” “Where am I headed?” “Why am I on this planet?” and “Is life worth living?”

For example, one female high school graduate&nbsp;said to me: "I lost my father due to cancer, and I love helping people with cancer. More than that, I want to help others who do not have access to medical help."

This evolves into a vision statement, revealing the social significance of her work.

Another shared her story, stating: "I fell pregnant before completing high school and was compelled to give my child up for adoption. I subsequently studied social work. Today, I use my profound understanding of the challenges faced by young girls who become pregnant while still in school to help them navigate their pain and trauma."

A common thread weaving through these real-life stories is the transformative power of turning personal pain, hurt or “suffering” into triumph and social contributions. In essence, it is about converting passive suffering into active mastery.

The eminent Swiss psychologist&nbsp;Carl Jung&nbsp;once&nbsp;said: "Be grateful for your difficulties and challenges, for they hold blessings. In fact … (Humans) need difficulties; they are necessary for health, personal growth, individuation, and self-actualisation."

By assisting others who have overcome challenges similar to their own, individuals actively confront the pain they themselves have experienced.

Students preparing a presentation for studies in a classroom [Image: Kampus Production]

The final high school exam is water under the bridge. Not all will have attained their desired success, that’s for sure. But there are still ample reasons to remain optimistic about the future.

Time to choose a career? Psychologist offers tips on journey after high school

Andy Phippen

I spend my career researching young people and the internet: what they do online, what they think about it and how their views differ from those of their parents.

I often get questions from parents about their children’s internet use. One of the most common is when to get their child a mobile phone, as well as how to keep them safe when they have one. Here are my answers to some key questions.

<h2>How old should my child be when they get their first phone?</h2>

I’m afraid I often disappoint parents in my answer to this question by not giving them a definite number. But the key here is what your child is going to use the phone for – and when might be suitable for that individual child.

According to a&nbsp;2023 report&nbsp;by UK communications regulator Ofcom, 20% of three-year-olds now own a mobile phone. But this phone may just be used for taking pictures, playing simple games and supervised video calls with family.

The more pertinent question is when children should have their own fully-connected phone, which they can use unsupervised to contact others online.

When a child is primary school age, they will likely be used to adult supervision in most aspects of their life. They will either be at school, at home, with friends and trusted adults or with other family members.

Their need to contact a distant adult may not be that great – but you will want to think about what the specific needs of your child might be.

Typically the transition from primary school to secondary is when children might be more distant from home, or be involved in school activities or socialising with friends where being able to contact home becomes more important. I have spoken to plenty of young people who talk about starting secondary school as the point where they first had their own phone.

<h2>How do I make sure they use a phone safely?</h2>

First of all, it’s important that if your child is going online – at whatever age and regardless of the device they’re using – you have a conversation with them about online safety.

Parents have a role to play in educating their children and making them aware of the risks that come with being online, as well as being mindful that most online experiences&nbsp;<a data-link-role-code="open_new_tab" href="https://theconversation.com/why-children-dont-talk-to-adults-about-the-problems-they-encounter-online-202304">are not harmful</a>.

I have carried out&nbsp;extensive research&nbsp;with young people on online harms. As part of this research, I and colleagues developed a number of&nbsp;resources for parents, put together with the help of over 1,000 young people.

What these young people say the most is they want to know who to turn to when they need help. They want to be confident they will receive support, not a telling-off or confiscation of their phone.

This means that a key first step is to reassure your child that they can come to you with any problems they encounter and you will help them without judgment.

It’s also important to discuss with your child what they can and can’t do with their device. This could mean, for instance, setting ground rules about which apps they can have installed on their phone, and when they should stop using their phone at the end of the day.

You should also explore the privacy settings for the apps that your child uses, to ensure that they cannot be contacted by strangers or access inappropriate content. The NSPCC&nbsp;has resources&nbsp;for parents on how to use privacy settings.

<h2>Should I check my child’s phone?</h2>

Sometimes parents ask me about whether they should be able to check a child’s device – either by physically looking at the phone or by using “safetytech”, software on another device that can access the communications on the child’s phone.

I believe it’s important that this is also something you discuss with your child. Trust is important to ensure that your child comes to you with any online issues, so if you want to monitor their phone, talk to them about it rather than doing so covertly.

It seems reasonable parental supervision to be accessing a child’s device when they are of primary age, in the same way, a parent would check with another child’s parent before agreeing to let them visit their home.

However, as your child gets older, they might not want their parent to see all of their messages and online interactions. The&nbsp;<a data-link-role-code="open_new_tab" href="https://www.unicef.org.uk/what-we-do/un-convention-child-rights/">UN Convention on the Rights of the Child</a>&nbsp;clearly states that a child does have a right to privacy.

<h2>Should I track my child’s location through their phone?</h2>

I have spoken to some families that track each other’s devices in an open and transparent manner, and this is a decision for the family. However, I have also spoken to children who find it very creepy that a teenage friend is tracked by their parents.

The question here is whether parents are reassuring themselves that their child is safe – or whether they want to know what they are doing without them knowing.

I had a particularly memorable conversation with someone who told me their friend was extremely upset because their daughter had changed devices and so they could no longer track her. When I asked how old the daughter was, they said she was 22.

It’s also worth considering whether tech like this provides false reassurance. It may allow parents to know where their child is, but not necessarily whether they are safe.

As with monitoring a child’s phone, it is worth reflecting upon whether a surveillance approach creates the ideal conditions for them to come to you with problems, or whether this is more likely to be fostered by open conversations and an environment of mutual trust.

Girl sitting on her desk while using her smartphone [Image: RDNE Stock Project]

When to give your child their first mobile phone and how to keep them safe. First of all, it’s important that if your child is going online – at whatever age and regardless of the device they’re using – you have a conversation with them about online safety.

When to give your child their first mobile phone & how to keep them safe

Derek E. Lee

Giraffe populations have&nbsp;declined&nbsp;by 40% in the last 30 years, and there are now fewer than 70,000 mature individuals left in the wild. What are the causes of this alarming decline, and what can be done to protect these gentle giants?

The five biggest threats to giraffes are habitat loss, insufficient law enforcement, ecological changes, climate change, and lack of awareness. Below, I will tell you about these threats and what is being done to save them.

I will also explain a&nbsp;study&nbsp;I was a part of that ranked these threats in terms of each one’s danger of causing giraffe extinction, and whether human actions can alleviate that danger.

The study used data from more than 3,100 giraffes identified over eight years in an unfenced 4,500km² area of the&nbsp;Tarangire ecosystem&nbsp;in Tanzania. We used the data to simulate how environmental and land use changes could affect the giraffe population over 50 years.

The findings can guide conservation actions.

<h3>1. Habitat degradation, fragmentation and loss</h3>

Giraffes need large areas of savanna with abundant native bushes and trees to feed on. The biggest threat to giraffes is the degradation, fragmentation and loss of their habitats through human activities such as farming and human settlement expansion.

Habitat loss outside protected areas is the main reason for the recent decline in giraffe numbers. National parks provide most of the remaining habitat. Some good habitat remains unprotected but is cared for by pastoralists.

Traditional pastoralists like the Maasai in northern Tanzania&nbsp;maintain&nbsp;large spaces of natural savanna where wildlife and people thrive together.

However, most people now living in areas that were giraffe habitat are sedentary.

As populations of farmers and townspeople expand, giraffes are forced into smaller and more isolated patches of land. This&nbsp;reduces&nbsp;their access to food and water, and increases their vulnerability.

Giraffe populations have declined by 40% in the last 30 years, and there are now fewer than 70,000 mature individuals left in the wild. What are the causes of this alarming decline, and what can be done to protect these gentle giants?

The Conversation Africa

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