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Kenya’s candidate for the African Union Commission (AUC) Chairperson, Raila Odinga, could face a significant diplomatic hurdle.
The 16-member Southern African Development Community (SADC) bloc made a last-minute push urging its members to rally behind Madagascar’s nominee, former Foreign Affairs Minister Richard J. Randriamandrato.
A letter from the SADC Secretariat, dated February 12, 2025, called on member states to support Randriamandrato, citing regional unity and continuity in leadership within the African Union’s senior ranks.
The move comes after Mauritius, which had initially presented a candidate, withdrew from the race, leaving Madagascar as the only contender from the region.
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In January, Odinga had reported that he had the backing of Mauritius; candidate former Foreign Affairs Minister, Anil Kumarsingh Gayan.
Another candidate Raila will have to beat is Djibouti's former Foreign Affairs Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf.
SADC’s Strategic Move
At its August 2024 meeting in Harare, Zimbabwe, the SADC Council directed its Committee of Ambassadors in Addis Ababa to closely monitor the election process and provide guidance on the bloc’s best strategy for securing key leadership positions within the AU.
The Secretariat’s recent communique is seen as the implementation of this directive, ensuring that SADC speaks with one voice in the high-stakes election for the AU Commission’s top seat.
“The Republic of Madagascar has formally written to the Secretariat seeking the support of SADC member states for its candidate. Given the short time before the election, there is no need to convene an Extraordinary Council of Ministers to consider the request,” reads the letter signed by SADC Executive Secretary Elias M. Magosi.
Impact on Raila Odinga’s Candidacy
The diplomatic manoeuvre by SADC presents a challenge for Raila Odinga, who has been widely regarded as a frontrunner in the race.
His campaign has received significant backing from President William Ruto, who has been lobbying across the continent to secure endorsements.
However, with SADC accounting for 16 out of the AU’s 55 member states (only 49 will vote), the bloc’s support for Madagascar could alter the dynamics of the election.
Despite the call for unity, the letter also acknowledges that each member state retains the right to vote based on national interest.
This leaves room for Kenya to continue lobbying individual SADC countries to back Odinga’s bid.
Regional Unity vs. National Interests
The SADC endorsement of Randriamandrato is seen as part of broader efforts to strengthen regional representation in AU leadership.
However, not all member states may follow the directive strictly, as historical voting patterns in AU elections have shown that national interests often override regional consensus.
Observers note that while Odinga may have lost an opportunity to consolidate votes from the SADC bloc, his campaign will likely intensify efforts in other regions, particularly in East and West Africa, where Kenya has stronger diplomatic ties.
Final Push Ahead of Elections
With the AUC elections set for Saturday, Kenya is expected to step up diplomatic engagements to counter SADC’s push.
The endorsement of Madagascar’s candidate is a reminder of the geopolitical complexities at play, as regional blocs seek to assert influence in AU leadership.
While the SADC move strengthens Madagascar’s standing in the race, the final outcome will depend on the voting patterns of individual member states, many of which may still be open to persuasion in the final hours before the election.