Recent events in South Sudan where First Vice President Riek Machar was arrested have left the country on the brink of sinking into another civil war, adding to its history that has so far been characterised by blodshed with occassional periods of delicate peace.
To understand the present, the missed opportunities and the important lessons it presents, one needs to go to the past when South Sudan was part of Sudan before attaining independence after decades of war.
Sudan attained independence in 1956 with Britain and Egypt relinquishing their colonial control of its territory, giving rise to Sudan with South Sudan as part of the newly-independent nation.
Not long afterwards, internal divisions emerged, followed by two civil wars between the wealthir North and the less-developed South.
The last civil war lasted from 1983 to 2005 and after years of concerted efforts with the international community intervening, guns finally fell silent with the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) also known as the Naivasha Agreement on January 9, 2005.
Kenya was at the heart of it all with efforts to restore peace commencing under former President Daniel Arap Moi with his successor Mwai Kibaki carrying on to see peace return to the neighbouring country.
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The agreement provided a roadmap to peace, culminating in a referrendum that birthed Africa's youngest nation when its citizens voted overwhelmingly in favour of total independence from Sudan on July 9, 2011.
Kenya: The reliable neighbour South Sudan has always counted on
Kenya: The reliable neighbour South Sudan has always counted on
In the history of South Sudan, Kenya has a special place and has been a dependable neighbour in times of crisis, remaining a beacon of peace in a region plagued by civil strife and conflicts.
From hosting peace talks that birthed the country's independence to hosting its citizens uprooted by conflict and fleeing persecution, Kenya has been a good neighbour to South Sudan.
It has also intervened whenever tensions flare up, using its diplomatic influence to push for peace agreements and cease-fires.
Nonetheless, political instability and violence persists in Africa's youngest nation that has its military deeply divided along tribal lines and loyal to Salva Kiir and Riek Machar.
Clearly, this is not the vision that its founding father, Dr. John Demabior Garang had for his motherland during the struggle for independence alongside Riek Machar and Salva Kiir who are the two protagonist in the conflict.
Plunging back into conflict
It was a moment of joy for millions who had waited for this moment that came at a heavy cost of lives lost, destruction of property, millions injured and several left with long-lasting trauma with years spent in flight and in refugee camps.
Pre-existing ethnic tensions, long-standing grievances and widespread disenfranchisement would soon see the nation plunged into conflict with a political struggle between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar December 2013 turning into a civil war.
Kiir accused Machar of plotting a coup d’état against him, and dismissed the latter from his government.
Soldiers from the Dinka ethnic group aligned with Kiir, and those from the Nuer ethnic group supported Machar and what followed was another bloodshed that spread from the capital to Jonglei, Upper Nile, and Unity states.
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In late Decemeber 2013, the UN Security Council approved the deployment of additional 6,000 security forces, adding to the 7,600 that were already in the country.
In a landmark move, the mandate of the mission shifted from state-building to civilian protection in May 2014, allowing the UN security forces to use force to protect civilians as the country descended to yet another dark part of its history.
Fragile peace returns
Negotiations brokered by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) saw the two antagonsists Machar and Kiir sign a peace agree,ment in 2015, with Machar returning to the capital in April 2016 and being sworen in again as the Vice President.
Suspicion and mistrust remained in the air, with deep rooted divisions in the military along tribal lines and loyalty to the two leaders persisting.
It did not take long before another conflict errupted between government forces allied to Kiir and opposition factions backing Riek Machar who fled the country and headed into exile for yet another time and was at one point detained in South Africa.
Throughout 2017 and 2018, several ceasefires were negotiated and violated by either sides as the nation
The deal that saw Riek Machar land back in government
It was not until June 2018 that Kiir and Machar agreed to a deal that was brokered by Uganda and Sudan followed by the signing Khartoum Declaration of Agreement.
The Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan laid out a roadmap for peace, including a new government structure and the formation of a unity government.
President Kiir finally formed the unity government in 2020 with Machar as his First Vice President after postponing it twice.
Key Developments over the last one week
Another civil war in South Sudan is not the wish of the international community and events of the last few days have sparked concerns of the country descending into chaos.
A heavily-armed convoy of 20 military vehicles made its way to Machar's home and placed him under arrest on Wednesday.
Kenya acted swiftly, sending its Raila Odinga to Juba with the latter briefing regional leaders of his findings in what is turning out to be a race against time to save South Sudan from descending into yet another conflict.
Sudan People’s Liberation Army In Opposition, or SPLM/IO that is allied to Machar declared that his arrest renders the 2018 peace deal null and void.
What Kenya can learn from the South Sudan conflict
The heavy cost of tribalism
For a long time, negative ethnicity and tribalism has been a concern in the country.
While a number of leaders have championed for national unity, with a robust constitution and bodies established to promote integration, some have been flagged for sowing the seeds of discord, advancing tribalism that goes against the country's unity and development.
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Among the drivers of the cycles of civil wars and conflicts that are a sad part of South Sudan's history is tribalism that has found its way into different spheres of life, including in the army.
The two protagonists in the conflict, Riek Machar and Salva Kiir hail from Nuer and Dinka tribes respectively and over the history of theiir conflict, their respective tribesincluding those in the military have sided with them.
The result is a toxic war in which nationhood is lost with devastating consequences that continue to threaten the future of Africa's youngest nation.
Political ambitions, sacrifices & peace
Kenya has history where patriotic leaders have put aside their political ambitions in the interest of national unity.
The crisis that followed the 2007 election was among the darkest moments of Kenya's history with catastrophic consequences.
With the intervention of the international community, reason prevailed with the two protagonists at the center of the disputed elections forming the grand coalition government
While critics opine that power-sharing deals only encourage electoral theft and injustice, there is great benefit in resolving such situations in a way that maintains peace that those who have tasted conflict can best confirm.
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In 2018, Kenya had another moment of pride when former Prime Minister Raila Odinga and retired President Uhuru Kenyatta had the famous handshake that resulted in greater unity, lower political temperatures and a better environment for investors.
History would repeat itself when Raila warmed up tom President William Ruto in 2024, with the birth of the broad-based government that has greater inclusivity across the country and across political divide.
Military remaining apolitical
Kenya's security forces remaining apolitical is outlined in the constitution and there is great benefit in having it remain so, with the men and women in uniform adhering to the same.
A study of the history of the conflict in South Sudan reveals a clear pattern in which the military is deeply rooted in the country's politics and alied to Riek Machar and Salva Kiir.
When political disputes turn into conflicts, it is simply a disaster as two armed sides that should be defending South Sudan from external aggressions turn against each other, with the citizenry not spared.
Role of citizens
While the political class may have their differences which could impact the citizenry, individual citizens have a role to play in preventing the nation frommdescending into chaos as solutions are being sought.
In the case of South Sudan, the cycles of violence have been characterised by tribal wars with alliances emerging around the two protagonists.
This is a lesson that Kenyans can take note of and live up to their role in sustaining peace, unity and nationhood.
Trust and betrayal in politics
Political challenges require political solutions anchored in law and founded on trust.
In the case of South Sudan, Kiir's union with Machar has been infiltrated by the cancer of suspicion that has left each of them on the edge.Kiir suspects his Vice President of plotting to overthrow him as has been the case when he has been dismissed from government.
Machar on the other hand has learnt that his position as Vice President can be terminated at any time.Such is the reality in Africa's youngest nation where a political crisis is unpredictable and peace is constantly hanging in the balance.