Despite the dead heat — Sanders and Warren each with 20% support among Democratic voters and Biden with 19% — the Monmouth University Poll released Monday may hint at a concerning trend for the candidacy of Biden, the poll’s previous front-runner, whose support declined from 32% when the Monmouth Poll was taken in June.
Sanders of Vermont and Warren of Massachusetts both picked up several percentage points of support since June. Voters were asked whom they would support among 23 Democratic candidates.
Patrick Murray, who runs the polling institute at Monmouth, in West Long Branch, New Jersey, said the poll suggested that the race for the Democratic presidential nomination was tightening.
“The main takeaway from this poll is that the Democratic race has become volatile,” Murray said. “Liberal voters are starting to cast about for a candidate they can identify with. Moderate voters, who have been paying less attention, seem to be expressing doubts about Biden.”
Murray cautioned that the results were just “one snapshot from one poll.” The poll of 800 voters included 298 people considered registered Democrats or Democratic-leaning and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points within that group.
Warren’s favorable ratings also improved, while Biden’s slipped and Sanders’ remained stable.
While only one poll, the results seemed to bolster findings of a poll released last week by the Economist and YouGov that also hinted at a tight race, with 72% of Democrats giving a “favorable” rating to Warren — two points higher than Biden’s favorable rating of 70. In that poll, Sanders’ favorable rating was 65%.
In interviews in Iowa, some of Biden’s supporters have indicated that they lack enthusiasm for his candidacy, suggesting that his strong poll numbers may mask a softness in his support.
The Monmouth Poll found that Biden’s support had eroded in states that hold earlier primaries, dropping from 26% to 20% since June. It had also eroded among a broad range of Democrats — including those who call themselves moderate, conservative and liberal; those with college degrees and those without; white voters and voters of color.
Most of the other candidates for the Democratic nomination held firm in the Monmouth poll, albeit with far lower numbers than the three leaders.
Sen. Kamala Harris of California remained steady with 8% support. Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey gained slightly, from 2% in June to 4% in August. Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, got 4%, compared with 5% in June.
The poll delivered bad news for another candidate: California hedge fund billionaire Tom Steyer. Steyer entered the race in July and has said he would spend $100 million of his own money on his campaign.
Because Steyer registered less than 1% support in the poll, he has not yet qualified for the third televised Democratic debate in September, with a deadline to qualify looming on Wednesday.
So far only 10 candidates have qualified, meaning the debate is currently set to take place on one night.
The national poll was conducted by telephone from Aug. 16 to 20.
This article originally appeared in
.